Due to two years of corona and the war in Ukraine, Africa is facing very difficult and dangerous times | opinion

Two years of corona have impoverished households in Africa and weakened social bonds, says Jan de Boer. According to him, there is still a threat of famine because of the war in Ukraine.

Many African countries have refused to speak out at the United Nations General Assembly about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, letting them know that this war is not their war. However, the continent is already feeling the effects, with the increased prices of food and energy. This couldn’t come at a worse time; two years of pandemic have squeezed households and state budgets, as it were.

The main concern is the food supply of the continent. Russia and Ukraine are the main suppliers of grain and fears of shortages have sent prices skyrocketing since the start of the war.

North Africa is particularly exposed to this, as it is completely dependent on imports. In Egypt, for example, with its 102 million inhabitants, bread is an essential part of the diet. The country imports more than half of the grain consumed by the population and about 80 percent of these purchases come from Ukraine or Russia. The Egyptian government has therefore temporarily banned the export of grain, flour and lentils and is considering subsidizing bread even more than is currently the case (2.5 billion euros per year).

Dizzying government debt and major drought

The situation is no better in other North African countries. For example, Tunisia, which also subsidizes bread, has little or no freedom of action because it has a staggering national debt. The sad thing is that the countries of the Maghreb are confronted with a major drought that severely limits their own harvests.

The rest of the continent is not spared either. Sébastien Abis, scientist at the French Institut de relations internationals et stratégiques (IRIS) and director of the think tank Demeter, which specializes in global agricultural issues: “A total of 27 countries in the world depend for more than 50 percent on Russia and Ukraine for their needs for grain. Of those countries, 15 are in Africa.”

The overheating of food prices started even before the war in Ukraine broke out. The causes are multiple: from the increase in the price of oil that makes freight traffic more expensive to exchanges disrupted by the health crisis. And let’s not forget the disturbed climatic conditions, with all the consequences that entails for the harvests. By the end of 2021, food prices had already risen by 17 percent in Nigeria and even by 42 percent in Ethiopia.

Grain price not the only one going up

The grain is not the only product that is seeing its price skyrocket due to the war in Ukraine. Corn and sugar follow the same course. The price of sunflower oil, of which Ukraine is the main exporter, has also skyrocketed, and so have substitute products such as palm oil. The same goes for fertilizers used in rice and maize crops in Africa, as Moscow threatens to suspend its export.

Two thirds of their income must already be spent on food by Africans. Last month, the director of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, warned that “the war in Ukraine means famine in Africa.” According to the United Nations Global Food Programme, half of the Sudanese population (44 million people) will go hungry this year and the situation in the Sahel countries is no less alarming.

Perhaps some countries can also benefit from the war in Ukraine. While Europe is looking for opportunities to expand its gas supply, Algeria is looking at how it can supplement the Russian supply with its gas resources.

Many African states deeply in debt

Countries with large gas reserves such as Mozambique, Tanzania and Senegal hope to attract new investments. But before a profit can be made, there is still a lot of time in these developments. And in the meantime, the countries see no solutions to help their residents. Many African states are already in debt up to their ears.

In 2007 and 2008, the rise in food prices sparked violent famine riots around the world, especially in Africa. Now there are manifestations against the expensive life in the Maghreb, especially in Morocco. Other regions in Africa have already experienced peaks of instability in the past year, such as the turmoil in March 2021 in Senegal and a wave of looting in July 2021 in South Africa.

Almost everywhere, the corona crisis has impoverished households and weakened social ties. Sebastien Abis: ,,If hunger is added to the multitude of problems, the violent protests will increase everywhere.” Africa is facing very difficult and dangerous times.

Jan de Boer is a publicist. He lives in Limoux (France)