ABSTRACT: The 4h chart shows that the Dow Jones was able to push back above the SMA50 after going below this line. From here it went to the SMA20 (currently at 33,735 points) and after a few attempts then dynamically above this average line at the end of the week.
This has also brightened the higher-level chart. As long as the index is trading above the SMA50, it could continue to go up. Conceivable start-up goals were defined in the daily observation.
Current DOW JONES analysis on May 1st, 2023: Chart analysis, weekly outlook, trading setups and more – for active day traders
Latest US Index News 🔴 Wall Street Trade Ideas 🔴 Dow Jones Forecast & Outlook
Dow Jones Review: (04/24/2023 – 04/28/2023)
The US stock index Dow Jones was listed at 33,817 points on Monday morning. The index was 283 points below the level on Monday morning of the previous week and 130 points below the end of the week on Friday evening. The index recovered moderately on Monday. It went over 34,000 points, but the bulls were unable to keep the Dow Jones above this level. Although a new attempt was made on Tuesday to approach and overcome this mark, it failed. Things went down dynamically until Wednesday evening. Stabilization only succeeded in the area of 33,440 points. Here the cops took over. Things went up dynamically on Thursday and Friday. By the end of the week, the Dow Jones was able to re-establish itself above 34,000 points. The Dow Jones went up 33,204 points from the weekly trade.
On the upside, we had expected that the Dow Jones could start our next target on the upside at 34,211/13 points by exceeding the 34,197/99 point mark. This movement has set in, the goal was not reached, the setup was not right. The setbacks went below our maximum starting target on the bottom at 33,467/65 points by falling below the 33,488/86 point mark.
Dow Jones – How could it go on:
Dow Jones Resistances
- 33,338
- 34,467
- 34,558
- 34,664
- 34,851
- 35.123
Dow Jones support
- 33,938
- 33,874/66
- 33.786/35
- 33,511
- 33,289
- 33.128
The most important brands based on our Dow Jones setup:
- Intraday mark 34,465 and 33,109
- End of day marks 34,917 and 32,335
- Break1 Bull (Wo-Close) (29,514)
- Break2 Bull (Mon-Closed) (24,808)
- Boxing range 38,406 to 16,001
- Cyclic movements 2020 – 2033
- Ranges 48,825 to 9,743
Dow Jones chart check – viewing in the daily / 4h chart:
DAILY
The daily chart shows that the Dow Jones initially lost some substance at the beginning of the week. It dipped below the SMA20 (currently at 33,866 points) on weakness, however, the bulls managed to avoid confirming that daily close. At the end of the week there was lively interest in buying again, and the index was able to move above this average line again on Friday.
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It will be important whether the Dow Jones manages to stay above this line at the end of the day. If that succeeds and if it can quickly move upwards afterwards, the daily chart would brighten bullishly. As long as the Dow Jones is above the SMA20 at the end of the day, it can continue to rise to 34,480/510 and then higher towards 34,900/35,000 points.
However, if this fails and the index slips and re-establishes itself below the SMA20, the breakout on Friday would be interpreted as a false breakout. Further deliveries to the SMA50 (currently at 33,128 points) and if this support does not hold up to the SMA200 (currently at 32,786 points) would be conceivable.
- Classification of higher-level chart image, forecast (daily chart): bullish
Consideration in the 4h chart:
The 4h chart shows that the Dow Jones was able to push back above the SMA50 (currently at 33,866 points) after going below this line. From here it went to the SMA20 (currently at 33,735 points) and after a few attempts then dynamically above this average line at the end of the week.
This has also brightened the higher-level chart. As long as the index is trading above the SMA50, it could continue to go up. Conceivable start-up goals were defined in the daily observation.
Setbacks could initially occur up to the SMA50. If there is no recovery here, the SMA20 could offer further support. The chart image would switch to neutral when the Dow Jones reestablishes itself below the SMA20.
- Classification short-term chart image, forecast (4 hours): bullish
Conclusion: the Dow Jones must try to confirm Friday’s daily close above the 20-day moving average. If that succeeds, things could continue to improve. If it goes below this line again at the end of the day, this could be an indication of further deliveries.
- Probability bull scenario based on our setup: 55%
- Probability of a bear scenario based on our setup: 45%
Dow Jones: assessment for the new trading week:
While the German stock exchanges will remain closed on May 1st, trading is already resumed in the USA.
Long setup: the bulls may initially try to keep the Dow Jones above the 34,200 point mark. Should this succeed, our next targets would be 34.211/13, 34.229/31, 34.248/50, 34.262/64, 34.278/80, 34.295/97 and then 34.315/17 points. Above the 34,315/17 point mark would be the 34,331/33, the 34,345/47, the 34,360/62, the 34,382/84, the 34,398/400, the 34,415/17, the 34,432/34, the 34,452/54, the 34,467/69, 34,483/85, 34,501/03, 34,518/20, 34,536/38 and 34,556/58 points are our next targets. If there are no setbacks at 34,556/58 points, the upward movement could continue. The Dow Jones could be our next targets at 34577/79, at 34592/94, at 34611/13, at 33631/33, at 33650/52, at 34664/66, at 34683/85, at 34697/99, at 34715/ 17, at 34.736/38, at 34.752/54, at 34.770/72 and then at 34.789/91 points.
short setup: if the Dow Jones cannot hold above the 34,200 point mark, it could go down to our next targets at 34,180/78, at 34,159/57, at 34,144/42, at 34,128/26, at 34,110/08, at 34,090 /88, at 34.067/65, at 34.048/46, at 34.025/23, at 34.008/06 points. Below the 34,008/06 point mark, the index could start our targets at 33,991/89, at 33,966/64, at 33,949/47, at 33,938/36, at 33,913/11, at 33,888/86, at 33,876/74 and then at 33,867 /65 start up. If there is no recovery in the area of 33,867/65 points, the downward movement could continue. Our next targets would be the 33.846/44, the 33.827/25, the 33.808/06, the 33.786/84, the 33.774/72, the 33.763/61, the 33.745/43, the 33.724/32, the 33.719/17 the 33.705 /03 and then the 33,687/85 points.
Overarching expected trend in week 18/2023:
ACTION at the TESTSIEGER 2023:
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