In the last few hours, an agreement was reached between Israel and Hamas that, beyond its explicit content, should be understood as a carefully orchestrated multinational diplomatic operation, where each player obtained something concrete. The model is classic Trump: everyone wins, at least in the first round.
First is United States with the political objective of the Nobel Prize. donald trumpthe promoter of the agreement, plays its most daring card for this award. This is not traditional foreign policy or diplomatic altruism, but pure symbolic capital. A prize that will seal his return, wash away his past conflicts and position him as a global negotiator. This agreement is not a treaty, it is a campaign.
For ASaudi rages are artificial intelligence (AI) chips. Riyadh seeks priority access to the new raw material of power, semiconductors suitable for AI. The agreement makes it easier for the Saudis to approach Western suppliers, especially after rumors that the Emirates were left out due to their proximity to China. Saudi Arabia thus obtains a symbolic entry ticket to the club of the privileged of silicon.
For its part, the United Arab Emirates will access a handful of chips. Although relegated, they receive a small quota of semiconductors. It’s not much, but it’s something. The United States throws them a technical bone so that they do not break discipline. They tolerate an ambiguous position regarding China, but the limit is drawn.
For Qatar is shielded against bombing. This crucial mediator leaves with the tacit guarantee that he will not receive air attacks. The United States promises protection in future tension scenarios. Thus, it becomes a buffer State, necessary to maintain regional balance. He gains security and reaffirms his role as an inevitable interlocutor on the Arab board.
Türkiye will see F-35s unlocked. Ankara will recover cutting-edge fighter jets, something it was denied years ago. Washington froze its delivery, but now Erdogan returns to the table of the privileged. A concession that also represents a geopolitical rearrangement in the face of growing Turkish influence in regional conflicts.
Egypt will find stability on its border and direct aid. For Cairo, Gaza is a permanent problem. The agreement relieves him of some of that pressure and guarantees help from Washington. The United States, in return, ensures that the country remains a disciplined, useful and operational ally in the control of the Strip and its humanitarian corridors.
For its part, Israel gets the narrative of victory with the return of the hostages. Netanyahu will present this as a triumph, given the rescue of hostages, progress in the objective of “disarm Hamas” and an internal political push amid growing pressures. Although the second part of the agreement, the real disarmament of Hamas, remains doubtful, Jerusalem has already scored a victory in the first stage.
Hamas now has its survival assured. Gaza was on the brink of military collapse. The group, without logistical support, faced a campaign of total annihilation. The agreement stops the Israeli offensive on Gaza City and allows it to breathe. He has not yet handed over his weapons, nor has he agreed to be part of the future government in the Strip. But it avoids extermination, and that, for its leadership, is already a gain.
Implementation is the first stage underway, however the second part is up in the air. The first part of the agreement is the handover of prisoners by Israel and live and dead hostages by Hamas. This will be carried out without major surprises. The second part, however, gets bogged down: Hamas has already declared that it will not hand over its weapons or participate in the new Gazan government. The disarmament was frozen before it began.
The Nobel wild card can be a lever or a time bomb. If Trump receives the Nobel, he will seek to finish his work. Thus, he will put pressure on Hamas, force disarmament, consolidate the new government and present himself as the architect of peace. If you don’t receive it, the scenario becomes more dangerous. He can withdraw from the process, ignore the Gaza future and even retaliate against Norway, the host country of the Nobel committee. This is not minor since Norway has a direct border with Russia, and a withdrawal of the American umbrella will leave the Nordic country exposed like never before.
In conclusion, this is not the end of the conflict, it is a turning point. A strategic pause to reposition forces, adjust alliances, measure costs and benefits. Peace will be conditional, fragile and temporary; if it comes. But the agreement did make something clear, and that is that in the new global policy, each actor measures its profit in chips, prizes, guarantees or hunts. Meanwhile, the speeches do not contribute. And everyone, for now, gained something. Unless the Norwegian Nobel Committee says otherwise.
