Twelve months ago, the Dutch Grand Prix was overshadowed by what is arguably the most explosive upheaval in the driver market in years. Sebastian Vettel announced his retirement and Fernando Alonso his move to Aston Martin.
As a result, a dispute broke out between Alpine and McLaren about Oscar Piastri, which was only settled by the contract confirmation committee on the Zandvoort weekend.
But just as 2023 Formula 1 action isn’t quite as exciting on track as it was last year, the so-called silly season of Grand Prix racing has been rather quiet this time around, judging by the early ejection of Nyck de Vries at AlphaTauri. Because with regard to 2024, all important driver places seem to be firmly assigned by the end of next year.
With the driver pairings of Red Bull, Ferrari, Mercedes (waiting for Lewis Hamilton to finally sign a contract), McLaren, Aston Martin, Alpine and Haas all but settled, main interest is focused on those at the bottom of the current pecking order in the premier class.
Things remain in flux there: Alfa Romeo has yet to decide whether to stick with Guanyu Zhou, while AlphaTauri is taking a closer look at Liam Lawson and considering how to proceed with Yuki Tsunoda and Daniel Ricciardo.
Logan Sargeant’s place at Williams is also a key target for a number of drivers looking to make their way onto the grid. Speculation linked both Mick Schumacher and Felipe Drugovich to the team.
Is Williams still sticking with Sargeant?
However, there may not be a seat there as team boss James Vowles has made it clear publicly that there is every reason to hold on to the American if he continues to make strides to close the gap on Alex Albon.
At Zandvoort, Vowles said: “The pace of learning has to increase now. He’s aware of all that and I think he’s already very mature for his age. He knows he has a career and a journey ahead of him that he’s in charge of and our job is to help him along the way, not punish him.”
So while on the surface the driver’s market appears to be quiet, the Formula 1 paddock is a highly exciting, fast-paced political environment. This means that just when you think things are going in one direction, something can come up that takes them in a completely different direction.
In that regard, trusted sources in the paddock are taking notice, as they have indicated that Aston Martin has been putting out feelers to several drivers over the past few weeks to see if they will be available in the future as the 2025 driver market is fairly open seems to be.
It’s even been hinted that it could be as soon as next year if things play out in the right way. However, this should be taken with caution.
Insiders report that Aston Martin’s CEO Martin Whitmarsh, who is said to have lured Alonso away from Alpine a year ago, spoke to Lando Norris and Charles Leclerc, among others. Both are initially tied to their current teams: Leclerc to Ferrari until the end of 2024, Norris to McLaren until the end of 2025. Any contact should therefore be a long-term approach.
Speculations about Stroll’s future
A truism in the Formula 1 driver market says it is the duty of every team to speak to every driver and know if they are available, otherwise they won’t be doing their job. Sometimes such an exchange between team and driver does not necessarily mean that you want to poach someone.
Still, the very fact that a rapprochement (no matter how informal) is coming at a time when the driver market seems so balanced is intriguing. Because it is happening, in the case of Aston Martin, against the background of new speculation about the future of Lance Stroll.
The Canadian has endured a difficult year, not doing as well as his new teammate Fernando Alonso, who was one of the sensations of 2023.
Based on the performance of the AMR23, the team should be comfortably second in the Constructors’ Championship, but they risk falling behind Ferrari and ending the year in fourth place if they don’t score with both cars.
While talk of Lance Stroll leaving Formula One and pursuing a career in tennis seems far-fetched, there has to come a point where, if Aston Martin is to win the World Championship, they need to be sure that both drivers exploit the maximum potential of the car. If that is not the case, important decisions have to be made.
Alonso is the star now but the team knows that at 42 he is unlikely to be the one who will lead the team in five or ten years. So it’s a given to make your mark on the driver market, because you can’t rely on the current duo forever.
What role Palou and Honda play
The real question is whether Aston Martin is primarily trying to find a short-term replacement or a long-term leader – or both. And finally, someone needs to kick off to sort themselves out for 2025, because no team wants to be attached when the journey to Jerusalem begins.
Also of note is the backstory to Alex Palou’s contract saga in IndyCar after the Spaniard reversed his plans to join McLaren and instead committed to staying with Chip Ganassi Racing.
It is believed that Honda, Aston Martin’s works partner in Formula 1 from 2026, will play a role that should not be underestimated. Because it is said that the Japanese manufacturer would like to include Palou in its next Formula 1 chapter.
So if he is indeed viewed as Aston Martin’s long-term future, it is unlikely that the team believes that they can achieve their stated goal of winning the World Championship outright with Honda with an absolute rookie. Conversely, this means that it would have to be used earlier: 2025 at the earliest, 2024 is even better (even if that is unlikely).
Finding the right pieces of the jigsaw puzzle in terms of its line-up over the next few years is an intriguing challenge for Aston Martin, and one that will certainly also keep drivers like Leclerc on the verge of contract negotiations who need to know which others options there are.
Interest from several teams is always good
In addition, when negotiating a contract with the current team, it is always helpful to know that another team is also interested. Leclerc explained before the Formula 1 summer break that his top priority is to stay at Ferrari – despite the obvious interest of other teams.
“Obviously every driver thinks about their different options when given the chance,” he said. “But I have a great love for Ferrari. And my first goal and my biggest dream is to become world champion with Ferrari.”
But it is imperative for any driver in Leclerc’s position to have a contingency plan in place if such dreams cannot be achieved. Given their current form, Aston Martin would certainly be a realistic option for the Monegasque.
While the idea of a shocking driver change in 2024 involving Aston Martin and one of the current big players like Norris or Leclerc may seem unthinkable at the moment and much more likely in 2025. But last season taught us that only fools rule out the unthinkable completely.