Does Russia have enough missiles to sustain this barrage? This is what military experts say | Abroad

Some analysts believe Russia is dwindling its stockpiles of long-range precision weapons after nearly eight months of war. The many sanctions are also hurting the economy, forcing the country to resort to less accurate missiles. It remains unclear whether Russia has enough weapons to continue its attacks on Ukraine with the same intensity as after the October 8 explosion on the Crimean Bridge.

Russian officials say the military has ample supplies of long-range missiles and factories are producing more. The Russian military has not said how many missiles it has already fired and how many are left. In addition, there is no data to independently assess the state of the Russian arsenal.

President Vladimir Putin recently met with military leaders and state members to see if they could ramp up arms production. But in his televised comments, he did not elaborate on details.

When the Russian army launched missile strikes in Ukraine from Monday, it mostly used long-range precision weapons: the Kh-55 and Kh-101 cruise missiles fired from the ground. But the Russian armed forces have also repeatedly used S-300 air defense missiles to attack ground targets, which has been seen by some observers as a sign of a Russian weapons shortage.

Russia’s use of air defense systems and anti-ship missiles indicates it lacks more advanced missiles to hit ground targets, said Ian Williams, an associate at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies. Attacks with a Russian S-300 air defense system “don’t have the strength to hit military targets really hard and they don’t have the accuracy in a land attack to even hit buildings,” Williams said. “This is really just shooting into the airwaves and seeing where they land.”

The use of these missiles can also be explained by an abundant supply of older subtypes. Those missiles are then replaced by more advanced air defense weapons. It may also be the military’s desire to keep more expensive, advanced long-range missiles for priority targets.

While the Biden administration believes there are indications that Russia has depleted stockpiles of its most efficient weapons, US officials say there are no signs that Moscow is ready or willing to halt its recent attacks on civilian areas in Kiev and other Ukrainian cities.

It’s not immediately clear what the US thinks Russia has left. But two officials said US analysts had noted with interest that Russia has been using expensive but less precise cruise missiles over the past week rather than the less expensive ranged missiles that are quite reliable.

This choice could indicate that Russia is short of reliable medium-range weapons and struggling to replenish its stockpiles due to sanctions and supply chain disruptions. The relative calm in Kiev prior to the Crimean Bridge incident may have been a sign that Russia was trying to conserve its limited resources, officials said.

Firing large numbers of inaccurate missiles may be intended to disrupt air defenses, while Russia uses its best missiles for high-value targets and important infrastructure.

But Williams suggested Moscow can also act strategically, knowing its barrage will hit civilian targets in the hopes of creating panic and inciting Kiev to accept a ceasefire favorable to Russia.