In eight months, the Rutte IV cabinet has already experienced crisis after crisis: in the reception of asylum seekers, the rapidly declining purchasing power, the resistance to the nitrogen plans. But the crisis of confidence that is now taking place in the cabinet, after the interview from CDA leader Wopke Hoekstra in the AD about nitrogen, is different. It comes from within, has been dormant for much longer and appears to be a major threat to the continued existence of the cabinet.
The other government parties understand that Hoekstra wants to change something about the nitrogen plans – he wants the farmers to be given more time to comply with the requirements. The CDA, it sounds in The Hague, is in “death trouble”. The party loses a lot in polls, the CDA would now have about eight seats left. But why didn’t Hoekstra first ask the cabinet for help? He had never mentioned it before, say those involved.
It was not until the evening before the publication of the interview, in the Catshuis, that the other party leaders heard what to expect. Hoekstra undermined the agreements in the coalition agreement on nitrogen by declaring the end date of 2030 “not sacred”. The coalition faction leaders, the other deputy prime ministers and the prime minister were not able to see exactly what he had said. They had to read that the next day.
Also read the previous analysis: Major quarrel in cabinet after statements Hoekstra
A drama
According to those involved, Prime Minister Rutte made a drama of it that evening: he had never experienced anything like this in his entire career. In the meeting of the Council of Ministers on Friday, D66 leader Sigrid Kaag told Hoekstra: “Confidence is gone.”
The House of Representatives is interrupting the summer recess this Tuesday for a debate about the interview. The opposition will want to know exactly what’s going on with that lack of trust and whether government can still continue if the coalition parties no longer want the same.
The coalition does not expect the crisis to lead to the end of Rutte IV in that debate. But the realization that a government collapse is imminent is there: if ‘discussion leader’ Johan Remkes comes with recommendations at the beginning of September, those involved say that parties will have to choose. If the CDA continues to demand that farmers be allowed to take longer to achieve the nitrogen targets, the other coalition parties will have to consider whether they want to give Wopke Hoekstra something extra. “If he has to backtrack,” says someone from the cabinet, “there might be nothing left of his party at all.”
Other ministers see how Kaag and Hoekstra especially do not like each other
What plays a part in the breach of trust: if there is a compromise in Remkes’ recommendations, this will be claimed by the CDA as Hoekstra’s victory. The VVD could also use such a compromise – at a congress in the spring, a majority of members demanded that the plans be radically adjusted. D66 will be seen as a big loser if the end date shifts.
It has been difficult at the top of the cabinet for much longer. Other ministers see how Kaag and Hoekstra in particular are not mutually exclusive. A lot of old things seem to have piled up between those two, and Mark Rutte – since the parliamentary elections last year. When Kaag gave the HJ Schoo lecture in the formation, in which she lashed out at Rutte, the others knew nothing. And in that formation, Kaag felt that she was not taken seriously enough by Rutte and Hoekstra.
Also read: CDA members support Hoekstra’s statements: ‘Obstinately sticking to nitrogen targets is unworldly’
A lot at stake
There is now a lot at stake for the CDA. Just before the summer, angry party members had accused him of a lack of leadership in a meeting with Wopke Hoekstra. Why was he so quiet? Hoekstra tried to change that in the summer, visiting farmers and posting photos of them on social media.
But according to the party leadership, it was not enough. He had to show more clearly that the CDA also has its own ideas, and that they can deviate from government policy. Especially with a subject that affects its voters so hard.
But in the Catshuis, last week, Hoekstra was told by VVD members that not everything revolves around the CDA. The reception of asylum seekers is at least as sensitive among VVD voters as the nitrogen plans at the CDA. In recent days, VVD departments in Limburg and North Holland have strongly resisted the pressure from The Hague to come up with reception places for asylum seekers.
The House of Representatives understands that very well. In the Catshuis, party leader Sophie Hermans made a point of it towards Hoekstra, according to those involved. The VVD is under pressure, but did you hear her undermine cabinet policy?
When Remkes is ready, it will be up to the cabinet to decide how to proceed with the nitrogen plans. There are doubts within the governing parties: is there a way out? But you also hear: nobody in the coalition has an interest in elections. Certainly not the CDA.
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A version of this article also appeared in the newspaper of August 23, 2022