Djokovic finds Fritz surprise in Turin: the precedents are overwhelming

From Medvedev to Fritz. The day after the last, now irrelevant group match, Djokovic returns to the field to try to secure yet another final act at the ATP Finals, but only the first in Turin, where the second edition is on stage. In the inaugural match, the Serbian was defeated at the hands of Alexander Zverev, who later won. Unlike a year ago, the former world number one finds a real surprise, initially in the role of reserve, then became Alcaraz’s replacement: it is the American Taylor Fritz.

Previous

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The direct clashes speak clearly in favor of Djokovic. There are five precedents, as many victories of the Belgrade native who lost only two sets against the American on the street. It was the Australian Open 2021, won by the Serbian. In the third round he had a bad time: ahead two partials to zero, he slips and injures his abs, being reassembled by Taylor but then managing to win in the sprint. Not even a physical problem could help Fritz.

Between the two there is a precedent in Italy, that of last year in Rome, when there was a match almost only in the second set (6-3 7-6). While the last direct clash is also the only one on indoor hard courts, the same one in Turin to be clear: at Bercy 2021, Nole won 6-4 6-3.

Quotes

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The precedents reflect the odds. And viceversa. Yes, because Djokovic’s access to the final (chasing his sixth title at the Finals, equaling Federer) is really one step away for the bookmakers. Serbian is played for 1.22 on PlanetWin365, 1.25 on Betfair and 888sport. Fritz’s feat, the greatest of his career, is given at 3.75 on Betfair, 4.00 on Bet365 and 4.10 on PlanetWin365.

The prediction

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There is little doubt who to trust. It is true that Fritz defeated both Nadal and Auger-Aliassime in his group, but Nole’s displacement and motivations seem to have the upper hand. The American will give everything, with little to lose, considering that up until a month ago, qualifying seemed like only a dream. In any case, Djokovic could close the case in two partials: in the “set betting” formula, Novak’s 2-0 is offered at 1.71 on Goldbet and Better, at 1.75 on Sisal Matchpoint.