Binding Brussels targets for less gas consumption: with the proposal presented by the European Commission on Wednesday, it falls within the national competence of the Member States. She previously did this with the joint purchase of corona vaccines, the European recovery fund (750 billion euros) and soon the joint purchase of weapons and gas. Exceptional times require exceptional measures, says the Commission.
“Putin is blackmailing us with his gas,” said Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Commissioner Frans Timmermans (Green Deal) when presenting their plans. Only if the European Union acts in unison can it withstand the turning off of the Russian gas tap unscathed. According to the Commission, the Member States are still too often and too deeply burying their heads in the sand for the danger of such a total Russian gas stop. In recent years, Russia has accounted for 40 percent of total European gas imports. In recent months, EU countries have reduced their gas consumption by 5 percent.
Alarm phase
“This asks a lot of everyone,” von der Leyen acknowledged. In summary, the Commission proposes to reduce gas consumption by at least 15 percent in the coming heating period (August-March). If this is not possible on a voluntary basis, the reduction will be imposed by law. The Commission determines when that alert phase of binding targets will start.
In its calculations, Brussels assumes that the Nord Stream pipeline will no longer open on Thursday. In order to get through the winter without major economic shocks, the EU will then have to save 45 billion cubic meters of gas – 15 percent of its total consumption. Commission officials also calculated a 10 percent reduction, but concluded that it was too risky.
The target of 15% applies to all Member States, including Portugal and Spain, which use little or no Russian gas. If everyone does their best, countries that are heavily dependent on Russian gas (Hungary, Bulgaria, Germany) can be helped by Member States that have leftover gas from non-Russian suppliers and from stocks. The gas quotas apply for two years, because the winter of ’23-’24 is not safe either. The current gas reserves consist of Russian gas, next year there will be no more.
Air conditioning less low
The Commission plan advises Member States on who can save gas and how. Households, schools and hospitals should never be left out in the cold, but can certainly make a contribution: air conditioning less low and heating less high, shorter showers, lights off. Companies are encouraged to use less gas or to switch to other energy sources. In order to sing out in the coming years, coal and nuclear power plants may remain open longer. The disconnection of business sectors is the last option and should be done in an EU context where possible. Meanwhile, the EU imports more liquid gas than ever from other suppliers (US, Norway, Qatar, Azerbaijan) and is investing heavily in sustainable energy sources (wind, sun, hydrogen).
The Commission proposal will undoubtedly meet strong criticism from European energy ministers next week when they consider it. Is that 15 percent really necessary? For everyone? And why should the Commission single-handedly declare the alarm phase? Shouldn’t such a far-reaching decision be taken by the Member States? Adoption of the proposal requires a large majority of ministers to agree.
Creeping power grab
In Member States, the discomfort is growing at what they see as a gradual seizure of power by the Commission. Energy security, healthcare and defense were pre-eminently national competences, and it is precisely here that the Commission – with the consent of the same Member States – plays an increasingly important role.
Von der Leyen and Timmermans emphasized the importance of unity on Wednesday. ‘If we now act together, we will determine our own fate. Putin’s attempt to manipulate us will fail,” said Timmermans. Von der Leyen pointed to the corona pandemic where the joint procurement of vaccines saved lives, the European recovery fund that helped the economies recover and the European supplement to unemployment expenditure that gave governments breathing room.
According to the Commission, the economic damage of a Russian gas stop will be one-third lower if the EU countries prepare in time. Each one makes Putin smile, together they snatch his energy weapon from the Russian president’s hands. With this gas proposal (and the previous decisions to boycott Russian oil and coal), the EU will be completely disconnected from fossil fuels from Russia next year.
Commission officials argue that solidarity between Member States is necessary in times of major crises. During the euro crisis, rich northern member states helped the weaker southern brothers, now Portugal and Spain must help ‘energy poor’ Germany. The Netherlands, Finland, Denmark and the Baltic countries have already achieved their 15 percent savings.