The nitrogen policy of outgoing minister Christianne van der Wal (VVD) is rattling on all sides. Researchers from the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Wageningen University and the RIVM provide these devastating conclusions in a report in which they have examined the nitrogen approach since 2021.
Goals set by the government are unattainable, provinces and central government do not report on the effects of measures already taken, the policy that has been formulated does not facilitate the granting of permits, and in the meantime, nature reserves that are sensitive to nitrogen remain overloaded.
Researchers from the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Wageningen University and the RIVM state this in a report in which they have examined the nitrogen approach since 2021. They note that a ‘feeling of collective powerlessness’ has arisen.
Virtually impossible to demonstrate improvement in nature
The researchers’ most shocking conclusion is that the effects of all nature restoration measures that the cabinet and provinces have taken since 2021 are ‘not known’. “There is insufficient data available for this,” say the researchers, who consider this an ‘unfortunate’ situation. Partly because this makes it virtually impossible to demonstrate in court cases that nature has already improved.
In addition to the fact that the effects of all nature restoration measures that the cabinet and provinces have taken since 2021 are ‘unknown’, the researchers’ report contains even more disaster.
‘Achieving targets requires much more nitrogen reduction’
In calculations they calculate that the nitrogen exceedance will decrease by a third (between 2021 and 2030) due to large-scale (voluntary) buyout of farmers. But according to their forecasts, even after that, the government’s own set goals will remain ‘out of reach’. In fact, their figures show that the area of nitrogen-sensitive nature below the so-called ‘critical deposition value’ will actually increase (from 28 to 31 percent) in 2030.
According to the researchers, this is because deposition values have been tightened due to ‘new scientific insights’ and because announced measures have not been elaborated. “Achieving the targets will therefore require much more nitrogen reduction.”
‘More measures for companies to be expected’
The nitrogen approach has led to numerous farmer protests, now that the biggest challenge lies with agriculture. The researchers have mapped out that the voluntary buyout of farmers will cause the livestock population to shrink, causing the added value of this sector to be approximately 8 percent lower. This also has consequences for the processing and supplying companies, especially in Gelderland, Overijssel and the southeast of the Netherlands.
But even after that, government goals are not achieved, the researchers believe. “Because the policy goals are still far out of reach, it is expected that more measures will follow for companies. And although the government also hopes to indirectly create more room for licensing with this policy program, little relief can be expected with the current approach. This is because in many places – even with very significant emission reductions – nitrogen-sensitive nature remains where the critical deposition value is exceeded.”
Negligible effect on reducing maximum speed
It is also noteworthy that the government’s decision to limit the maximum speed (to 100 kilometers per hour) has had a negligible effect on nitrogen emissions, according to the calculations.
In an explanation, the researchers explain that setting a ‘threshold value’, as neighboring countries also have, could be a measure to provide relief in the licensing process. Small projects, such as housing, can then be obtained more easily because there are almost no nitrogen emissions.
“But that requires a very good ecological substantiation. That is why it is so important that the government maps out the effects of measures and thus provides insight into the quality of nature.”
Researchers: The Netherlands is not completely locked down
In addition, the government must ‘prioritise’ and there are still many ‘untapped’ opportunities to limit nitrogen emissions, including technical innovations at farms and, for example, factories. Reducing the crude protein content in the ration of dairy cows can also help reduce nitrogen emissions.
The researchers do challenge the image that the whole of the Netherlands is ‘locked down’. “The development of permits granted for residential construction (until the end of 2023) does not show a break in the trend.” This is because there are few legal proceedings against these types of construction projects and there are few nitrogen emissions involved in construction.
“The construction industry indicates that many housing projects can continue, but that there are obstacles in the form of delays and costs. However, this picture looks different for other activities of great social importance. For example, the construction of new infrastructure projects has now largely come to a standstill.”