Defense expert Ko Colijn has been providing Dutch people with explanations about armed conflicts for 47 years. For NU.nl he follows the battle in Ukraine and answers our (and your) questions. This time: how should the war continue, now that both Ukraine and Russia are struggling with arms shortages?
Ko Colijn: “The artillery duel in the Donets Basin continues. Ukraine complains that it is almost out of bullets and shells. There are still some 155 millimeter shells, but they do not fit in the 152 millimeter howitzers that the Ukrainian soldiers of Eastern European NATO countries have been given. Zelensky and his commanders are asking the West to replenish their weapons before they are ‘outgunned’ by the Russian enemy.”
“But the Russians are also struggling with shortages. They have to bring extra battle groups from the outside regions with art and flying work. They are long gone because of the precision munitions, they are now firing at Ukrainian cities and trenches with old-fashioned large artillery.”
“Ultimately, the Russians can last longer than the Ukrainian army, which loses an estimated 500 soldiers every day in the Donets basin.”
Russians must adjust attack plans
What’s next for the Russians? Ko Colijn: “The media experts are concerned about the fate of the city of Severonetsk. Whether the last remnant of that city is torn down by the Russians or not, it does not make much strategic difference.”
“What is now clear is that the Russians have to constantly adjust their attack plans, read: scale back, and cannot cross important rivers without huge losses.”
“Independent military experts are now saying that Ukraine should withdraw from Severodonetsk to push the Russians back at Lysychansk a little further away.”
Striking criticism from Biden
“Under these circumstances, it is basically US President Biden who decides how long the battle will go on,” said Ko Colijn. “The US is gradually becoming the only arms supplier that keeps the defense going from Ukraine.”
Tellingly, last week Biden for the first time not only patted but also criticized Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky. In Los Angeles, he said Zelensky ignored American warnings that sooner or later Putin would leave the country. Loosely translated, he said: “Remember, American patience is coming to an end.” Or, more freely translated, Ukraine must compromise with the Russians, because after delivery of the HIMARS missile systems, we will not increase our arms support. “
“It is known that the US has refused to give Ukraine the Gray Eagle. That is an armed drone that could hit targets far in Russia, even the Kremlin.”
“For reasons of prestige, it is constantly claimed, also by our Minister of Foreign Affairs Wopke Hoekstra, that Zelensky is the only one who decides whether negotiations can take place. This is of course said out of courtesy: behind the scenes, the dictation comes from Washington and Moscow.”
“A week ago, the Ukrainian commanders said they could hold out for ‘two more weeks’. That is chafing with the statement of the American military chief Marc Milley who said that proper training of the HIMARS missile systems would certainly take several weeks and then would hurt the Russians, so Milley was basically saying: ‘Sorry Ukraine, your pleas for better guns are taking more time, because the Himars platoons won’t be deployable tomorrow.
Biden determines war outcome with arms deliveries
Ko Colijn: “Zelensky’s defense minister Reznikov said last week that the Russian artillery superiority on the Ukrainian side is causing one hundred to two hundred ‘unusable’ wounded and dead soldiers. A day later, Zelensky’s top military adviser Podolyak said that number could be doubled. Also maybe on the Russian side, by the way.”
“I think the outcome of the war is therefore determined by Biden and not by Zelensky. And if he survives the partly failed campaign, of course also by Putin, who has a home advantage and can always start his war again.”
“If this analysis is correct, the discussion about ‘humiliation’ or ‘defeat’ is obsolete. That is, should Putin be humiliated now or is an ‘ordinary’ defeat enough? That discussion was of course already theoretical to a certain extent, because a The line between losing and humiliating is blurred. Putin is already the moral loser, regardless of the military outcome.”