‘Death among Russian soldiers is reminiscent of WWII’

Every day, the independent Russian military expert and publicist Yuri Fyodorov studies the press releases of the Ukrainian General Staff. “Between the lines,” he reads that very heavy fighting has been raging in eastern Ukraine since last Wednesday. “The Russian troops are advancing, but it is moving very slowly, not more than a few kilometers a day,” says Fyodorov.

The battle for the Donbas, which Ukrainian President Zelensky said began Monday last week, appears to be entering a crucial phase. According to the Ukrainian magazine Defense Express Russia’s advance around Izyum is led by Russia’s highest-ranking military officer, Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov. It shows what interests are at stake, but probably also means that General Aleksandr Dvornikov, who was only appointed as commander two weeks ago, has not been able to get more direction in Russia’s actions. “Apparently he can’t handle it,” says Fyodorov.

Tens of thousands of Russian soldiers hold the Ukrainian army in a semi-encirclement during the fighting in the Donbas. From Russian-occupied Izyum in the north, the front line expands eastwards, bending back at Horlivka and Donetsk. If Russia breaks through from the north and south, much of Ukraine’s armed forces could be cut off.

Last Thursday, Russian units around Izyum not only attempted to advance southwards toward Sloviansk, but also advanced westwards to widen the encirclement. According to Ukraine, the Russians were beaten back.

Colossal Losses

In the heavy fighting, Russia throws its last reserves into the fray. According to Kiev, 23,000 Russian soldiers have been killed since the start of the war; the British Ministry of Defense spoke of 15,000 Russians killed this week. The rule of thumb is that the number of injured people is usually two to three times higher. That means that Russian losses (if one takes the conservative British estimate) are at least 45,000 men, almost a quarter of the maximum estimated size of the invasion force at the start of the invasion on 24 February (190,000). “Colossal losses,” says Fyodorov, reminiscent of those of World War II. Kiev makes no announcements about the number of dead and wounded on its side, but they are also high. “Artillery shelling caused many casualties,” researchers from the British defense think tank RUSI write in a recent report on the first weeks of the war, for which they spoke with Ukrainian soldiers: “At times the Ukrainians had to fall back on the sheer mass of the number of volunteers called up to stop the Russian advance.”

Lack of military personnel

But where Kiev can fall back on volunteers and reservists, Russia is desperate for trained soldiers. The losses of recent weeks were partly compensated by the arrival of troops from Russia’s far east and the western military district. However, that is not enough to get the invasion force back up to strength, says Fyodorov. On February 24, Russia had 120 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) have been drawn up, now there are about 85. “Restoring full striking power is not possible without mobilization,” says Fyodorov. Russia also has a large pool of reserve personnel aged up to 35 years: former professional soldiers and conscripts. But unlike Ukraine, Russia is not eager to join the war, and so far the Kremlin has shied away from declaring mobilization.

If Russia fails to win the battle of the Donbas in the coming weeks, Fyodorov says, it will have lost the war’s “spring campaign” and the Kremlin will face “enormous challenges”. At the current losses (100 to 200 per day), the current offensive will bleed to death within a few weeks. After that, President Putin can decide to negotiate (which he is not yet ready to do), escalate further by using (tactical) nuclear weapons (“cannot be ruled out” but “very unlikely,” says Fyodorov) or prepare for a war of attrition that is yet to come. will take many months.

According to the RUSI report, there are signs pointing to the latter scenario. The researchers point to the changed rhetoric of the Kremlin and the Russian state media, in which more and more comparisons are made with ‘The Great Patriotic War’ (1941-1945). On May 9, Russia commemorates the victory over Nazi Germany with the annual military parade across Red Square. According to the RUSI, Putin could use the holiday to declare a mobilization. “It seems increasingly likely that instead of declaring victory, the Russian government will use May 9 as the day on which the ‘special military operation’ is officially sold as a ‘war’.” The RUSI also points out that Moscow has been setting up a war economy for some time now. For example, Russia is looking for ways to lift the export ban on ‘dual use‘goods to avoid: cruise missiles cannot do without an on-board computer.

Ukrainian offensive

While Russia seems to be preparing for a long war in Kiev people secretly dream of a victory. According to Fyodorov, there are indications that Ukraine is in the process of forming new, fresh units, which will be equipped with the heavy weapons that NATO has already promised: heavy artillery, anti-aircraft defenses, armored equipment. Last Friday it was announced that Poland is delivering 200 T-72 tanks. His Ukrainian colleagues, Fyodorov said, are anticipating a Ukrainian counter-offensive before mid-summer.