DAX: Further clouding of the chart picture 🔴 The current DAX analysis on October 15, 23 🔴 Chart analysis, weekly outlook and trading setups

ABSTRACT: The DAX chart picture has turned bearish, especially on the 4h. At the beginning of the week, the bulls must try to push the DAX back up and above the SMA50. If this is successful, it is important to move upwards quickly. If this scenario arises, there is a possibility that the SMA20 could start again and be exceeded. If the bulls manage to set the index above the SMA20 again in the coming trading days, it could move towards the SMA200 again.

• 
  

  Current DAX analysis on October 15, 2023: chart analysis, Weekly outlooktrading setups and more – for active day traders

• 
  

  Latest news about DAX trading 🔴 DAX trading ideas 🔴 DAX forecast & outlook

DAX framework conditions:

Demand from Chinese consumers remains cautious, probably even in the “golden week”, one of the main travel times in China. Travel has been possible again since the Corona restrictions, but consumers still spent significantly less than expected. The weak demand is also reflected in consumer prices. These stagnated in September – meaning China remains on the brink of deflation. An important reason for the stagnation of prices is the real estate market, which is still in crisis. There is currently no improvement in sight here.

Chinese foreign trade appears to be stabilizing, at least that’s what the current data suggests. Although imports and exports each fell by 6.2% compared to the same period last year, the decline has slowed. Trade data confirms that the Chinese economy is recovering only slowly.

DAX review: (October 9, 2023 – October 13, 2023)

The DAX went into pre-market trading on Monday morning with a GAP down at 15,254 points. The index is therefore 250 points below the first pre-market quotation on Monday morning of the previous week and 138 points below the weekly closing date on Friday evening of the previous week. The DAX initially consolidated the setback on Monday. It wasn’t until Tuesday that some buying pressure appeared again. The GAP was closed on Tuesday morning and the bulls were able to gradually push the index further upwards. The friendly trend continued until Thursday afternoon. After the weekly high was formatted, the prices fell significantly. On Friday morning there was initially a small stabilization, the following setback was bought back, but on Friday afternoon the sales dominated again. The DAX joined 15,257 points from weekly trading.

When we exceeded the 15,667/69 point mark on the upside, we expected that the DAX could reach our next target on the upside at 15,683/85 points. This movement has occurred, the starting target has been reached exactly, The setup was a perfect fit. The setbacks also went exactly to our next target on the bottom at 15,190/88 points, falling below the 15,205/03 point mark.

DAX – What could happen next:

Dax resistances

• 15,296
• 15,365/70
• 15,408/15/41/65/83
• 15,500/06/13/30/71
• 15,633/37/68/96
• 15,722

Dax supports

• 15,211
• 15,174/317
• 15,059
• 14,991/03
• 14,864
• 14,788
• 14,692

The most important brands based on our DAX setup:

• Intraday mark 15,582 and 14,965
• Daily closing marks 15,868 and 14,404
• Break1 Bull (Wo-End) (13,549)
• Break2 Bull (Mon end) (11,000)
• Box range 16,938 to 6,669
• Cyclical movements 2020 – 2033
• Range 18,149 to 1,778

DAX chart check – view in the daily / 4h chart:

DAILY

The DAX was able to recover somewhat in the past trading week. It went to and above the SMA20 (currently at 15,483 points). In the daily chart it can be seen that the index has not reached the SMA200 (currently at 15,722 points) or the SMA50 (currently at 15,688 points). The price patterns corresponded to the assessment from the last weekly timetable. At the end of the week things went dynamically south again.

This means that the daily chart remains affected. As long as the DAX is trading below the SMA20 at the end of the day, further setbacks could occur, which have the potential to continue downwards into the area of ​​15,065/50 points or, above all, to 14,640/25 points.

***

***

If the bulls are able to change direction in the coming trading week, there is a possibility that the recovery movements could extend to the SMA20. Whether the strength is there to overcome this average line remains to be seen.

• Classification of higher-level chart image, forecast (Daily chart): bearish

View in the 4h chart:

The DAX was able to move almost exactly to the SMA200 (currently at 15,637 points), but was rejected here. From here it went back up and below the SMA20 (currently at 15,500 points). The chart shows that the SMA20 only offered conditional support during the pullback. At the end of the week, the taxes continued. On Friday afternoon, after a minor recovery in the vicinity of this line, they went directly below the SMA50 (currently at 15,365 points).

This means that the 4h chart has turned bearish. At the beginning of the week, the bulls must try to push the DAX back up and above the SMA50. If this is successful, it is important to move upwards quickly. If this scenario arises, there is a possibility that the SMA20 could start again and be exceeded. If the bulls manage to set the index above the SMA20 again in the coming trading days, it could move towards the SMA200 again. If the DAX can move back to the SMA200, it remains to be seen whether the bulls will manage to set the index above this average line.

On the other hand, if the DAX settles below the SMA50, the bears would have a clear advantage. They would then have the opportunity to push the DAX further downwards, although it is also conceivable that the taxes could have a dynamic character. Conceivable starting goals were defined on a daily basis.

• Classification of short-term chart image, forecast (4h): bearish

Conclusion: As long as the DAX is trading below the SMA20 at the end of the day, further levies are conceivable and possible. The daily chart would only relax again when the bulls set the index above this average line.

• Probability of a bull scenario based on our setup: 45%
• Probability of a bear scenario based on our setup: 55%

Assessment for the new DAX trading week:

Long setup: The bulls could initially try to keep the DAX above the 15,255 point mark. If this succeeds, it could continue upwards to our next approach targets at 15,266/68, at 15,279/81, at 15,294/96, at 15,311/13, at 15,319/21, at 15,330/32, at 15,345/47, at 15,363 /65 and then go to 15,370/72 points. Above the 15,370/72 point mark, the DAX could reach our next target levels at 15,384/86, at 15,394/96, at 15,406/08, at 15,414/16, at 15,424/26, at 15,437/39, at 15,452/54, at 15,465/37, at 15,481/83, at 15,494/96, at 15,510/12 and at 15,525/27 points. Above the 15,525/27 point mark our next approach lines would be at 15,543/45, at 15,555/57, at 15,571/73, at 15,580/82, at 15,593/95, at 15,611/13, at 15,624/26, at 15,638/ 40, at 15,651/53, at 15,667/69, at 15,683/85 and then at 15,697/99 points.

Short setup: If the DAX cannot stay above the 15,255 point mark, the bears would have the opportunity to push the DAX to our next target levels at 15,244/42, at 15,231/29, at 15,218/15, at 15,205/03, at 15,190/88 , at 15,176/74, at 15,165/63, at 15,149/47 and then at 15,137/35 points. Below the 15,137/35 point mark it could continue downwards to our next target points at 15,123/21, at 15,110/08, at 15,091/89, at 15,075/73, at 15,064/62, at 15,051/49, at 15,039/37 , at 15,028/26, at 15,013/11, at 14,998/96, at 14,981/79, at 14,968/66 and at 14,952/50 points respectively.

Overarching expected DAX trend in week 42/2023:

source: xStation5 from XTB

THE GERMAN LEADING INDEX

• CONTINUOUS low target spread of just 0.8 points in the long trading session from 8 a.m. to 10 p.m.! Many other brokers have a favorable spread only from 9 a.m. to 5:30 p.m….
• Without additional order commission!
• Mini CFDs, trading from 0.01 contracts
• Find out here!