Our forecast & daily assessment for the DAX / DE40
Overarching tendency
The DAX started premarket trading on Friday morning at 17,886 points. The DAX already formatted its TH during the pre-market. From here, things initially went dynamically downwards with the start of official trading. The bulls managed to stabilize the index around 17,815 points and subsequently initiated a moderate recovery. In the afternoon, the gains from this recovery movement were sold off again. The index slipped again below 17,800 points, was able to recover again and gave up its gains at the Xetra close. After two Xetra winning days in a row, a small Xetra daily loss was reported at the end of the week. After trading, prices continued to fall. As a result, the index slipped below 17,800 points. The DAX joined 17,772 Points from daily and weekly trading.
Prices fell moderately during early trading.
This morning the DAX is at 17,759 points went into pre-market trading. It is therefore 127 points below the first pre-market quotation on Friday morning but 13 points below the daily and weekly closing date on Friday evening.
Chart check – viewing in the daily chart:
The DAX initially fell until the middle of the week, but the losses were manageable. During trading on Thursday of the last trading week, things went up again with dynamism and momentum. A new ATH has been formatted. A large part of the daily profits from Thursday were given back on Friday, at the end of the week. The bulls were unable to format a weekly close above the 17,800 point mark. Overall, the index moved sideways in a narrow range in the last trading week.
This period of consolidation after such increases is not an unusual price pattern. As long as the DAX can stay above the SMA20 (currently at 17,473 points) at the end of the day, further upward movements to new highs could occur. More broadly, the bulls could be eyeing the 17,980/18,000 points and then the 18,145/60 points.
If the sales were to expand at the beginning of the week and, if in doubt, also have a dynamic character, this would lead to the first question marks, especially if the DAX dynamically approaches the SMA20. Although there are always chances of stabilization and recovery in the vicinity of this line, if it falls below this line at the end of the day and the DAX settles below it, the chart picture would become cloudy. The prices should recover again at the latest in the area of the SMA50 (currently at 17,122 points).
DAX chart check – viewing in the 1h chart:
The DAX was trading above the SMA20 on Friday morning (currently at 17,790 points). The hourly chart shows that the DAX fell below this average line on Friday morning and was unable to move above this line despite several attempts. The index was repelled south from the SMA20 twice. As trading continued, the SMA50 (currently at 17,801 points) was reached and undershot in the evening. The weekly close was formatted below this average line.
This means that the hourly chart has clouded over. As long as the bulls do not manage to push the Dax back above the SMA50 / SMA20 and, above all, to establish it, further losses could occur, reaching the SMA200 area (currently at 17,714 points). This average line had been a good support during the last setback. The prices should turn around here at the latest.
However, if the bulls can prevail at the beginning of the week, further recoveries could occur, which could reach the SMA20 and then further up to the SMA50. However, the hourly chart would only become bullish again once the DAX had established itself above the SMA50.
- Overarching assessment in the 1h chart, forecast: neutral
Based on our setup, we expect a sideways / upward* targeted market. This results in the following probabilities:
*refers to the end of the day at 10:00 p.m. compared to the end of the day the previous day
- Probability of a bull scenario based on our setup: 55%
- Probability of bear scenario based on our setup: 45%
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This assessment must always be seen in relation to the pre-market.
17,817 / 17,877 to 17,685 / 17,640 points is the daily range we expect today.
Dax resistances
- 17,785/90
- 17,801/30/59
- 17,900/18/39
- 18,022/94
- 18,156
Dax supports
- 17,754/42/14/12
- 17,698/73/47
- 17,587
- 17,480/73
- 17,347
Source: Self-analysis, the charts from the xStation5 are used // Marks in BOLD are cross resistances or supports
The mood of international investors*
The Greed / Fear Index*, which reflects the mood of international investors, was at 71 on the last trading day and is therefore in the “Greed” range. A week ago the value was 78 and thus in the “extreme greed” range. In comparison, the value a month ago was 78 and therefore also in the “extreme greed” range. A year earlier the value was in the “neutral” range. The value at that time was 49.
*) The Fear and Greed indicator is a sentiment indicator that is made up of seven individual indicators:
Indicator 1: the S&P 500 compared to its 125-day moving average Indicator 2. the number of stocks making 52-week highs and lows on the New York Stock Exchange Indicator 3. Stock Price Width: the trading volume of stocks in an uptrend versus stocks in a downtrend Indicator 4. Put and call options: the put/call ratio that compares the trading volume of bullish call options to the trading volume of bearish put options Indicator 5. Junk bond demand: the difference between the returns on investment grade bonds and junk bonds Indicator 6. Market volatility: Indicator 7. The difference between the returns on stocks and government bonds
The mean value of the index is 50, indicating neutral sentiment. Values over 50 are bullish (greed) over 70 (extreme greed) – Values under 50 are bearish (fear) and under 30 (extreme fear) Values over 70 or under 30 indicate an extreme condition and indicate a possible bullish / bearish reversal .
Extreme spikes in the Fear and Greed Indicator (above 70 or below 30) indicate greed or fear. The market is not stable in extreme conditions and therefore tends to reverse in the short term. For example, values below 30 often lead to a short-term sell-off in the stock market, allowing a bullish reversal.
* Source: CNN Business
The DAX 40 winner* Friday – Symrise
The Symrise share (SY1) rose on Friday. The security rose by 2.74 percent at the Xetra closing, making it one of the stocks with the largest price gains.
The share was already the daily winner in the middle of the last trading week. On Wednesday of the last trading week, the security gained 6.65%.
The daily chart shows that the share rose significantly in the last trading week. All five daily candles are green and underline the dynamic upward movement. Overall, the daily chart should be interpreted bullishly. As long as the share can stay above the SMA20 (currently at EUR 97.98), things could continue to rise. It is conceivable that the annual high of 2023 could initially be reached at EUR 110.13. If the share price can establish itself above this high, it could continue to rise towards EUR 114.77 and then further up to EUR 126.40.
Setbacks could occur up to the SMA20 and would initially not be a problem if the security can recover within the range of this line. However, if this does not succeed, the SMA50 (currently at EUR 97.00) and the SMA200 (currently at EUR 95.57) could offer further support.
*Basic Xetra closing
Source: Data/Charts from xStation5
Overarching assessment of Fresenius, forecast: bullish
The DAX 40 loser* Tuesday – Rheinmetall
The Rheinmetall share (RHM) lost 3.06 percent in Xetra trading on Friday, making it one of the biggest losers of the day.
The security has shown dynamic development in the last few weeks of trading. Things went up dynamically, with a few gaps up. It was only in the last two trading weeks that the momentum slowed somewhat and the upward movement was consolidated. There was a major setback at the end of the week, but the share did not exit day trading on the TT.
Despite the consolidation, the daily chart can still be interpreted bullishly. As long as the security can stay above the SMA20 (currently at EUR 406.59), the upward movement could continue. A conceivable starting target could be EUR 495/500.
Setbacks could occur up to SMA20. If the share price is unable to recover within the range of this line, the daily chart would become somewhat cloudy and further losses would be conceivable and possible, which could go up to the SMA50 (currently at EUR 354.56).
Source: Data/Charts from xStation5
Overarching assessment Fresenius forecast: bullish
The most important economic and economic dates for today’s trading day
- 00:50 JP GDP Q4 2023
- 07:00 JP machine tool orders 02/2024
- 09:00 CH SECO consumer climate
- 15:00 US CB Employment Index 02/2024
- 16:00 US consumer inflation expectations
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