The foreseeable rise in agricultural prices becomes a new destabilizing focus for the area
The cereal harvest forecast for North Africa points to reduced productivity due to the drought that has marked the region in recent weeks. High temperatures and lack of rain have resulted in a delay in cereal production in several regions of Morocco, a wide belt that runs through Algeria and the north-east and central region of Tunisia, he says the latest report from the European Union Joint Research Center (JRC). It remains to be seen what impact this bad harvest due to drought could have as a destabilizer in a region that already suffers from high prices of basic foods due to inflation and the high cost of cereals from Ukraine. In addition to crops, the drought will affect the availability of water for local populations and, eventually, energy supplies and production.
“How it translates into an economic impact depends on many factors, but it is certain that it directly affects agriculture and production is lost,” the newspaper said. Italian researcher Andrea Toreti, author of a report for the European Commission that gives the alarm about the adverse meteorological phenomenon. He gives the example of the drought that devastated southern Europe in 2018. “Then there were compensation mechanisms that mitigated the effect& rdquor ;. The Maghreb is a much poorer area in relation, and that can aggravate the impact.
The blow of the drought extends beyond the Maghreb, to the area of Turkey and Syria hit by the earthquake in late February that killed more than 50,000 people. This will only exacerbate the harmful effects for the displaced and refugee population.
The bulk of the impact on agriculture is expected this summer. Until the end of February, winter has been warmer and drier than other years over many parts of the Mediterranean. That includes the Maghreb, but also parts of Spain. This negatively affects soil moisture and the course of rivers, which are in critical values especially in Tunisia, Algeria and all of Turkey, says the report. In Morocco, the harvest has been “significantly below average in almost all wheat and barley plantings& rdquor ;. Specifically, it is estimated at a fall of between -24% and -15% compared to the average of the last five years for wheat, and between -30% and -10% for barley.
The Algerian government has already announced that it is going to take measures to reduce the consumption and waste of water. In Morocco, the fear is that the lack of precipitation in the coming months further reduce water reserves. In Turkey, the situation is already described as “severe drought& rdquor; and it is not known how they will be able to maintain irrigation during the summer. Some of the reservoirs have also been damaged by the earthquake.
Data obtained by Copernicus
The JRC provides information in real time through the Global Drought Observatory (GDO) and the European (EDO). “In the Copernicus system we use satellite data, hydrological models and meteorological forecasts, among others,” explains Toreti. With this information, they have been able to draw up maps that mark the areas that require special attention, due to the greater severity of the drought. They had already focused on that area because it comes from a heat wave in mid-December when the crop forecast worsened.
After an extreme 2022 in temperatures, the Mediterranean region is once again under the threat of drought. In Spain, the State Meteorological Agency has predicted this Friday that spring will be warm after a mild winter, which ends with drought.
But, in view of the map, the greatest concern is in the southern Mediterranean. The Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) points to alert in almost all Maghreb regions. Red in practically the entire area, except in the Ceuta area and the Moroccan region of Tetouan. In red is the area of the autonomous city of Melilla and the neighboring province of Nador.
The authors of the report call for “the greatest of importances & rdquor; to the task of estimating the potential impact in order to prepare aid and risk reduction strategies. “Urgent measures must be taken immediately to reduce the impact of the drought on the soil, crops and the availability of water,” they point out. “The next few weeks are going to be crucial, especially if hot conditions persist in the Mediterranean region and Europe and an extreme summer like 2022 is experienced& rdquor;.
heat records
The Earth breaks heat records due to Climate Change, and Scientists predict that things will get worse. Not always with droughts: there will be more heat waves, but also more storms and aggravated floods.
That is the forecast Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)which has just presented its latest report to policy makers from almost 200 countries at the meeting in Interlaken (Switzerland).
In this synthesis of the sixth cycle of scientific assessments, the IPCC insists that the objective of the nations of the world must be to limit an increase in 1.5 °C temperature risea, to avoid the most devastating effects of Climate Change. It is about, they say, preserving the world from a serious climate crisis with “unprecedented changes and in all aspects of society & rdquor;
To do this, by 2030, greenhouse gas emissions should decrease by 43% compared to 2019 levels. And even 84% by 2050. But they continue to increase, and that 1.5º C will inevitably be exceeded , even if only temporarily.
At 1.5 °C, 14% of terrestrial species will be threatened with extinction. At +2 °C, 99% of coral reefs in temperate waters –which are home to a quarter of marine life-– they will die of suffocation, and the aquaculture (molluscs, fish farms…) will also suffer the consequences, according to the reading of the report carried out by the EFE news agency.
The IPCC 2022 report on the impact of warming has been described by UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres as an “atlas of human suffering”.
Between 3.3 and 3.6 billion people are “very vulnerable” to these effects, particularly in the face of heat waves, drought as well as mosquitoes, vectors of disease transmission. By 2050, many coastal megacities and small island states will experience once-exceptional weather catastrophes each year.