Data analysis: Breitenreiter back at Hannover 96 – A good idea?

André Breitenreiter started his job at Hannover 96 on Thursday. The 51-year-old led the “Reds” to promotion to the Bundesliga in 2017. The data analysis shows whether it is promising to replace Stefan Leitl with Breitenreiter.

I’m here again, in my territory – that’s what Marius Müller-Westernhagen once sang on his album Radio Maria in 1998. Breitenreiter’s territory is the 96 Arena on Maschsee, that much became clear on Thursday. A female fan greeted the returnee before the start of training at midday with the words: “It’s nice that you’re back.”

In the previous days, both majority shareholder Martin Kind and manager Marcus Mann had also emphasized that Breitenreiter has a 96-year past and lives in Hanover anyway. “We don’t need to introduce it in the traditional way,” said press spokesman Christoph Heckmann at the presentation.

Breitenreiter, who used to storm for 96 himself and described himself as a fan, was happy about “the warm welcome” – and many “familiar faces”. It was like “coming home”. Nevertheless, he asked not to draw too many comparisons, but added: “I see great opportunities and the potential in the team that we can play for promotion.”

Breitenreiter’s second division record of 96 is outstanding

If Breitenreiter performs as successfully this season as he did eight years ago, there will be no way around Lower Saxony’s rise. After he took over the position from Daniel Stendel in March 2017, whose resignation as third in the table was even more surprising than Leitl’s, the “Reds” never lost a game until they were promoted. There were seven wins and four draws in the eleven remaining games.

Hannover revealed clear weaknesses in the first half of the season

The fact that 96 are still right in the middle of the promotion race today, only two points behind second place, is mainly due to their strong defense: with 17 goals conceded in 17 games, this is by far the best in the league. However, only the last four teams in the table have scored fewer goals than Hannover (22). The game under Leitl this season has revealed some weak points – the data analysis from Global Soccer Network (GSN) shows this very clearly.

Hanover’s weak points under Leitl

The most striking thing is the many ball losses that the team allowed themselves. According to the data, there were an average of 116 per game. No one else had so many. On the other hand, Leitl’s protégés impressed with strong pressing in the opponent’s half: 32.12 ball wins per game are the second best value in the league. At the same time, 96 shockingly did not record a single progressive action (with a significant gain in space) in the all-important first ten seconds after winning the ball in the opponent’s half and once again occupies last place in this statistic.

If you put the ball in reverse after winning the ball, you can avoid the dreaded counter-pressing. However, you cannot exploit the disorder in the opponent’s defense in this way. And so Hannover didn’t score a goal on the counterattack in the entire first half of the season.

During his presentation, Breitenreiter showed that he keeps a close eye on the values ​​and spoke, among other things, about the expected goals for home and away games. His assumption is “that defensive stability has been created at the expense of the offensive.” He wants to play offensively and “more courageously” forward. He is particularly concerned with the transition moments after winning the ball.

There’s a lot of work waiting for Breitenreiter

So a change of coach doesn’t really come as a surprise from a data perspective. And yet the question naturally arises as to whether Breitenreiter is really the right man in the right place. Because just being back in his territory shouldn’t be enough. Especially since his success story with the “Reds” didn’t end well: in January of his second Bundesliga season – in the first, Hannover had finished 13th – the coach had to leave as penultimate after a 1:5 in Dortmund.

This meant he was in office for a shorter period of time than Leitl is now. And: The season was Hannover’s last Bundesliga season to date. The 51-year-old, who was anything but successful in his recent spells at Hoffenheim and Huddersfield, has to deliver. There is enough work.

Breitenreiter’s homework

Leitl’s 4-4-2 system could quickly be shelved. Breitenreiter has so far mainly relied on a 3-5-2. This would open up new possibilities in the build-up of the game and also in the transition game, but it also entails risks. The rail players on the flanks in particular have a great responsibility. The central midfield is also in great demand. In addition, the previous game differs greatly in other aspects from what one is used to from Breitenreiter.

The newcomer explained that the team could play with either a back three or a back four. He wants to send the eleven best players onto the pitch. In any case, the game systems on the field are very variable.

Breitenreiter’s game idea needs a realignment

Overall, one thing remains clear: If Breitenreiter implements his previous style of play in Hanover, a fundamental realignment is needed. According to the data, the analysis of Breitenreiter’s style of play at his previous stations compared to Hannover 96’s current orientation only yields a match of 68.9 percent.

The change will not only take time, but also significant changes in the squad and in the players’ tactical understanding. And this while the football teacher is definitely under pressure to achieve short-term results. This change of coach therefore also entails a great risk. Breitenreiter described the task as “very exciting and attractive” and added: “I don’t see any risk at all. You need positive arrogance and have to look forward.”

A new defender is there, more new ones are to come

GSN states that the best system for the current 96 squad is neither 4-4-2 nor 3-5-2, but rather a 4-1-2-3. The first winter transfer doesn’t give a real indication of the direction in which things could go. Kenneth Schmidt, whom Hannover borrowed from Freiburg for one and a half years, is a regular central defender and, as a left-footer, is actually at home in the position of defense chief Marcel Halstenberg.

On the one hand, Schmidt could slide into the left-back position in the back four, but when switching to a three-man back line, he could also take the left part when Halstenberg plays in the center. However, Schmidt is out of the question as a rail player.

Manager Mann reported contacts with other players. One thing is certain: there will be further reinforcements. But the market has not yet taken off. That’s why Schmidt is the only newcomer who will travel with the team to the training camp in Belek on Friday.

Two weeks until Start of the second half of the season

The question of whether Leitl could have been more successful with a few new additions in the second half of the season will remain unanswered. However, it will soon become clear whether Breitenreiter can manage to turn Hanover’s game inside out within a very short period of time – the second half of the season starts in Regensburg on January 17th. No later than May 18th, when the last match day takes place.

Marius Müller-Westernhagen once continued to sing: “I never really left, I just hid.” Breitenreiter is expected to be there from day one. And, to stay with the lyrics, when hiding he takes on the role of a searcher in order to uncover any hidden potential in the team. Or to put it in Breitenreiter’s words: “The past is quickly forgotten. We have to work hard and get going.”

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Hello Lower Saxony | 02.01.2025 | 7:30 p.m