Open doors until Sunday 29th edition of Manga Barcelona with practically all the tickets sold out (there are a few left for this Thursday). There is a new record of visitors (in 2022 there were 163,000) and everything indicates that the number continues to grow. ‘otaku’ universe, of manga and anime fans but also of the diversity of Japanese culture, as demonstrated by the drawing power of the show. It was during the pandemic when historical manga sales figures were recorded, a ‘boom’ of new readers that reached its peak in 2022. Given the data for 2023, some voices warn of a bubble and that it can click. Is there that danger? Editors and consulted sector experts give their opinion and analyze the market.
In it Edita Forumheld in Barcelona in September, Ignacio López, head of Market Intelligence at the GfK consultancy, there was a 10% decline in sales in the first half, confirming a “stop” and a certain “stagnation”, but he added that this did not imply “poor health” of the environment. The post-pandemic ‘boom’ was global and so is the fall of 2023, also recorded in powerful markets such as France or the United States or in Japan itself.
Price increase
Among the brake factors, all point to the macroeconomic situation, with the war in Ukraine, the rise in the cost of paper and now inflation. Manga publishers, who had not raised prices for 15 years, have been forced to do so in 2023. From 7 or 8 euros for a standard volume, it has gone up to about 9 or 10. Despite this, the editors consulted assure that Readers have not been lost but they continue to be gained, that the foundation is solid and that interest continues, as can be seen in events such as Manga Barcelona.
“It’s not the Apocalypse, but I think we’ve all been very optimistic. Now I am less so. There has been a disproportionate increase in supply that neither readers nor bookstores nor critics can cope with processing. And a price increase to which the youngest fan, who has tight budgets, is very sensitive,” warns Jose A. Serrano, from the Association of Comic Critics and Distributors (ACDCómic), bookseller and web creator Comic Guide. According to your data, In 2023, the record for published news will be reached, with about 1,650, about 300 more than in 2022.doubling the figures from before covid.
Oversupply of securities
“There is no bubble, but there is an oversupply of securities. The peaks of the pandemic were a siren song for many publishers that did not publish manga and they set out to do it,” he says. Pedro F. Medina, editor of Fandogamia, small publishing house that has 30% manga in its comic catalog. There are more publishers to share the cake, more news, somewhat less economical and a reader who will proportionately buy fewer titles. In addition, competition and interest in purchasing licenses has raised the price of rights.
AND Buying manga in the Japanese market has its particularities and is a challengeExplain Óscar Valiente, editorial director of Normaone of the three large publishers that publish manga in Spain, along with Planeta and Ivrea: “It involves paying high costs in rights, taking care of the translation, contracting complete series that if they are not finished in Japan it is not known how many volumes they will end up being. And If the series does not work in Spain (success in Japan does not guarantee it here), it may end up making a loss, but by contract the publisher must continue publishing it.”
Bubble or stabilization?
“The exponential growth of 2022 was very difficult to sustain. The ceiling was reached and it is natural that it has fallen. I I would talk about stagnation, not a bubble. For us, 2022 was our record year and this year we will end up equaling the figures of 2021, which was our second best year in history, which compared to the pre-pandemic figures are formidable,” says Valiente. He agrees with David Hernando, his counterpart from Planeta Cómic. “2022 was a historic peak and in 2023 we are like in 2021, which was very successful. The market is stabilizing and consolidating. We are not worried, we continue to lead the manga share. We do not have to press the red alert button.”
He thinks the same Catalina Mejía, editor of Salamandra Graphic at the Penguin Random House groupwho in June 2022 caught the ‘otaku’ fever with the seal Manga District and this year they have released 99 titles. “There is no bubble. The figures are good and a lot of manga is sold. It was impossible to maintain the astronomical sales of the last two years. The market has stabilized. Our balance is positive, we have strengthened the brand and we are going to consolidate the catalog.”
The danger of very long collections
“I’m not catastrophic at all, I don’t see any bubbles,” he adds. Oriol Estrada, content manager for Manga Barcelona and member of the ACDComic. “It is good for the reader to have more options to choose from,” he continues. “In the 2008 crisis, manga publishers learned a lot about how to publish. Among the new ones, the small ones have been able to find niches and are doing well because they maintain small print runs and “They have gained loyalty from their audience. Perhaps medium-sized companies that have contracted many titles and very long collections may suffer.”
Examples of prudence are Milky Way (which in networks said that they choose “with moderation and affection” what they license and “without falling into excessive excesses”) or Fandogamy. “Our longest series has 8 volumes – confirms Medina -. We opt for single volumes or very short series, because they hold up better. And you trust that the short ones will become ‘long-sellers’, as has happened to us with ‘My lesbian experience’ with loneliness’, which since 2018 has 8,000 copies and now we rescue with extras because we know it works. It is key to bet on niches. We did it with non-fiction mangas and real stories. You concentrate your effort on your audience.”
And 2024?
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“You see new series that don’t take off, publishers that in that moment of euphoria contracted series of up to 140 volumes, bets that are a long-term commitment. Anime does not guarantee that a title will work… -Serrano alerts-. I think that In 2024, some publishers that began publishing manga after the pandemic will stop doing so or will limit themselves to publishing what is licensed. “You have to be cautious.”.
For his part, Estrada believes that “next year the publishers will be more forward-looking and will announce fewer titles, and they will focus on the series that they already publish or will recover classics. Also because now In Japan there is no news that is making a splash. Phenomena like ‘Guardians of the night’, ‘Tokyo revengers’, ‘Haikyū!!’ or ‘Chainsaw Man’ are already being published here and are holding up well.
Manga in Catalan
Several publishers began publishing manga in Catalan last year. They are all aware that it is a medium and long-term bet because they are creating a new market. “The public needs to get used to it and see that it exists. The synergies with TV3 help that,” says Estrada. “We know that it is sold to a lesser extent than Spanish, but we will continue publishing,” says Hernando, from Planeta, who in 2019 already launched ‘My hero academia’ or ‘Dr. Slump’. “We are committed to translating the most successful series,” says Valiente, from Norma. “The first volumes of ‘Tokyo Revengers’, for example, have been sold out and others, such as ‘Attack on Titan’ or ‘Evangelion’, are doing well.” .