After the Super Bowl is before free agency in the NFL. And before free agency, there are already some important personnel changes to be made by various teams. None is as explosive as the contract situation of quarterback Dak Prescott with the Dallas Cowboys, who is in a unique negotiating position.
The Dallas Cowboys are going into a groundbreaking offseason for a season in which they are finally set to make a big splash, after failing again early in the playoffs despite a third 12-win season in a row and this time even having pretty much no chance against an up-and-coming team Packers team. What I mean is: it wasn’t even the usual final boss from San Francisco that shattered the annual dreams.
Nevertheless, team owner and general manager Jerry Jones decided to continue with head coach Mike McCarthy. It is now also clear that former Cowboys assistant Mike Zimmer is returning as defensive coordinator and will succeed Dan Quinn, who took over the division rival Washington Commanders. Apart from these personnel details, Jerrah has already made it clear that they will be “all-in” in the coming season, especially when it comes to certain contracts for star players.
At the top of this list are wide receiver CeeDee Lamb and of course quarterback Dak Prescott, who desperately needs a new contract like no other. Lamb, who is entering his fifth year of his rookie deal, would have deserved it too, but while with him one could still justify making the most of this contract, such a step simply seems unthinkable with Prescott.
Cowboys: Prescott’s contract a ticking time bomb
Prescott’s contract is essentially a ticking time bomb that will become a problem for the Cowboys in March if not defused.
Basically, the Cowboys currently have an effective cap space of approximately -22.8 million dollars. One reason for this is Prescott’s contract. Dak had signed a four-year contract worth $160 million for the 2021 season after playing the 2020 season under the franchise tag and would have received it in 2021 if necessary.
It was already clear back then that the structure of the contract would eventually become a problem if it was not extended early. That point has now been reached, as his 2024 cap hit is currently nearly $59.5 million. If the forecast from “Over the Cap” is correct and the NFL’s salary cap is $242 million in the coming season, we are talking about almost 25 percent of the total cap that Prescott alone would occupy. And that’s just not practical, especially if you want to be a title contender and have to pay a few other players.
These include Lamb, Micah Parsons, who more than deserves an extension after three years in the NFL, as well as other top performers such as Stephon Gilmore, Tyron Smith and Tony Pollard, all of whom will become free agents.
Prescott’s contract includes a base salary of $29 million for next season and a roster bonus of $5 million, due March 18. His annual salary is not guaranteed, but that doesn’t matter. A layoff – unthinkable – would result in dead money of more than $60 million. A trade would also have the same effect. Except that the current deal contains a no-trade clause and Dak could therefore reject any trades.
Furthermore, it is inconceivable that both sides no longer want to work together, especially since both have communicated their wishes on several occasions. In this respect, it is simply a matter of extending this contract, which, by the way, already has two void years at the end in order to stretch the signing bonus burden. This is the only way to lower the cap hit. Leaving the contract as it is would have another disadvantage for the team, because another clause prohibits the Cowboys from placing the franchise tag on the player after the deal ends in 2024. Prescott could therefore negotiate with every team in the league next spring, which would at least increase the price for the Cowboys even further.
Cowboys: This is what a new Prescott deal could look like
Prescott and his agent Todd France (CAA Sports) clearly have the upper hand in the upcoming negotiations with the Cowboys, as only the Cowboys would have negative consequences if an agreement is not reached soon. The timing may not be entirely crucial here, but it is definitely a factor. If you really want to go “all-in” in this free agency, having as much cap space as possible at the start of free agency (March 13) would be an advantage.
What might a new contract look like in practice for Prescott, who has been making an average of $40 million per year? The first goal for him should also be to insist on a fully guaranteed contract like Deshaun Watson’s with the Browns. Prescott may have a better negotiating position for this white whale of NFL quarterbacks than any of his colleagues since Watson. While Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow were all still a year or two away from free agency and were still playing under their rookie contracts, so they had little real leverage, things are different for Prescott.
Lamar Jackson certainly pushed the most in this matter, but he also ultimately failed due to the fact that he also lacked the right means of pressure. The franchise tag limited him just as much as the fact that, strangely enough, all the other team owners agreed that they didn’t even want to negotiate with him. A rogue who is thinking of not entirely kosher agreements in the background in order to avoid repeating Jimmy Haslam’s (Cleveland Browns) fall from grace with Watson.
In this respect, one shouldn’t necessarily assume that Prescott will get such a fully guaranteed contract out of one of the most powerful owners in the NFL. But Prescott’s contract could definitely open up new boundaries. Depending on who you ask, he is certainly one of the ten best quarterbacks in the league, so he will demand a fair market price. At least.
Cowboys: Is Dak reaching for Burrow too?
As we know, contract length is irrelevant, especially for quarterbacks in today’s NFL. Contracts are structured – Dak’s current contract is a prime example – in such a way that it is almost essential by design to touch them again and adapt them at a certain point in time. In this respect, Prescott will also focus on other core numbers. Guaranteed salary, signing bonus and – important for the agent to show off to colleagues – average annual salary.
When it comes to guarantees that apply at the time of signing, apart from Watson (230 million), Burrow is currently in the lead with $146.6 million. Herbert and Jackson are the only ones who have also reached over 130 million so far. When it comes to practical guarantees, i.e. those that take effect as soon as the first one or two years have been completed, Burrow is also ahead with $219 million (Watson: $230 million). Herbert is close behind at $218.7 million. They are also the only two to come over 200 million in this regard.
When it comes to signing bonuses, Lamar holds the record with $72.5 million. Prescott himself is in second place with 66 million and only Matthew Stafford received at least 60 million dollars from the Rams.
In terms of average annual salary, a total of four quarterbacks currently earn over $50 million. Here too, Burrow ($55 million) is at the top, ahead of Herbert (52.5 million), Jackson (52 million) and Hurts (51 million). A good agent would now try to not only aim for the top in all of these matters, but also to attack beyond it. In other words: An average salary of 60 million dollars will probably be targeted, as well as guarantees that exceed 150 million at signing and practically 220 million dollars. Signing bonus? Possibly 80 million, although this is not quite as crucial as the total guaranteed amounts.
Whether this is justified from a sporting point of view is not really up for debate. Prescott is in the position to demand exactly that and from an overall player perspective it is his duty to push the limits of what is financially possible as much as possible, especially since the new TV contracts are taking effect and the salary cap is also steadily increasing will continue to increase over the next ten years.
Dak Prescott has a lot more leverage than the Cowboys and will certainly use this advantage to set new standards in the quarterback market. At the same time, he is the tip of the scales for the Cowboys’ further course of action, especially in the early weeks of this offseason. At least if the Cowboys actually want to go “all in”.
Marcus Blumberg