In July inflation was no less than 11.6%. This increase was mainly due to the high energy prices, which are reflected in the electricity bill but also in products on the receipt of the supermarket. However, the chance that this price explosion, partly caused by the war in Ukraine, will now repeat itself is small, according to Atradius Economic Research on Tuesday in a new outlook that reaches until the end of 2023.
According to the credit insurer, which has roots as far back as 1925, this certainly applies to all other costs incurred as a result of the corona pandemic. Such costs do not quickly return in full.
Atradius, which operates in fifty countries and insures many Dutch exporters abroad, is counting on a 3.3% increase in the core inflation index until the end of 2023. These inflation expectations have not yet been separated from the targets set by the European Central Bank for its interventions, which limit the risk for the Amsterdam insurer.
records
Energy sticks out in headline inflation. In June, the energy price determined more than 40% of inflation, in which expensive gas accounted for a very large share. Tuesday there will be another record for the average Dutch electricity price: €603.55 per megawatt hour. On Monday, that price was €558, when it was already fifteen times more than normal for years. In Germany, that price has already risen to €700 per megawatt hour.
But the oil price, for a long time largely linked to gas and determining the price at the pump, is leveling off in price. It is already 20% below the level of the peak in June this year. According to ING, the export of Russian oil has turned out to be larger than estimated. “Which means the oil market isn’t as tight as originally expected,” said ING commodities analyst Warren Patterson. It also helps that there is less demand for the oil due to slower economic growth in Asia.
ING is therefore lowering its price forecast for Brent oil this quarter from $118 per barrel of 159 liters to $100. And for next quarter to $97 a barrel. At the beginning of 2023, that price will continue to circle around $94, according to ING. High, but cooled.