Investors can identify the long-term tidal change in the CRB TR Index by the presence of the “two T’s” we often quote – trend reversal plus trend break. Following the end of the previous 13-year bear market, there was a dynamic recovery movement, which has now been paused since mid-2022. Against this background, the year 2023 can be described as an absolute year of transition. From a chart perspective, this development is reflected in the manifestation of a classic flag consolidation (see chart). In the coming months, this pattern is likely to take on a signaling character – both on the upper and lower sides. The upper flag limit (currently at 322 points) harmonizes very well with the highs of 2014 and 2012 at 314 and 322/326 points, respectively. Overcoming these hurdles will provide the starting signal for the continuation of the upward trend of recent years. In contrast, the 2023 low (278 points) coincides with the 38-month line (currently at 276 points) and the lower limit (currently at 266 points). This means that the “Disaster Stop 2024” is also clearly defined.
CRB TR Index (Monthly)
Source: Refinitiv, tradesignal² / 5-year chart attached
5-year chart CRB TR Index
Source: Refinitiv, tradesignal²
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