The CPB has drawn up various scenarios. In the worst scenario, purchasing power drops by an average of 3.4 percent. The middle scenario that the planning office also uses for its major new economic estimate is based on a 2.7 percent decrease in purchasing power. In a lighter scenario, a decrease in purchasing power of 0.6 percent would also be conceivable.
“We assume that everyone will feel the higher energy bill in his or her wallet sooner or later,” says CPB director Pieter Hasekamp in an explanation. “But whether it is a knock or a blow depends on the share of energy costs in disposable income. I am really concerned about people with lower incomes, especially if they live in a poorly insulated house. Such effects are not visible in the standard purchasing power charts.”