Coveted material: Why the oil price should climb to 140 dollars in the summer

Raw materials in this article

by Jörg Billina, Euro on Sunday

It’s not even a silver lining for consumers, but it could have been worse. Norway’s oil workers are not going on strike as initially announced. The unions reached an agreement with companies on higher wages the weekend before last. The threatened work stoppages at nine oil fields in Norway would have further reduced the already lower supply on the world market due to the oil embargo against Russia.

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However, the deal does not really ease the situation, demand is currently increasing sharply. In the USA, the so-called “driving season” is in full swing. Diesel and petrol prices have climbed to record highs. The gallon now costs 60 percent more than in the same month last year. Consumer dissatisfaction is growing. Meanwhile, the US Department of Energy is considering limiting oil exports. US gasoline inventories have fallen to their lowest level since 2014. If Washington actually decides to do so, the price of the black commodity on the world market is likely to rise.

Oil prices are getting additional support from the gradual lifting of COVID restrictions in China. Goldman Sachs analyst Damien Courvalin is already forecasting a rise to $140 a barrel in the summer. In the first half of next year, the average price will be $135.

Iran could make a significant contribution to reducing the supply gap. But the country is subject to sanctions and its oil export volume is limited. In order to lift the restrictions, an agreement in the nuclear dispute is required. At the moment, however, talks between Tehran and the western states are faltering.

Pipelines broken

No relief for consumers can be expected from OPEC either. Although the member states have agreed to increase the production volume, Nigeria, for example, is not in a position to do so. Several kilometers of pipeline are currently defective. The country is currently promoting significantly less than it actually could.

Investors who want to profit from the rising oil price can do so with the Paribas (NYSE:PARIBS) Brent Crude Oil ETC. Since the beginning of the year, the paper has increased by 84 percent.

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Image sources: James Jones Jr / Shutterstock.com, sacura / Shutterstock.com