Could Leclerc have won in Baku without a defect?

While Max Verstappen and Red Bull are convinced that they would have won the Azerbaijan Grand Prix in Baku without Charles Leclerc’s failure, Ferrari team boss Mattia Binotto is not so sure.

After Leclerc’s pit stop on lap 9, Ferrari’s plan was to complete the 42 laps to the end without another pit stop. “It was still a long race and we had to economize with the tyres. But the tire wear on the hard was very low. If we had gotten away with it, it would have been the right decision,” believes Binotto.

It was Carlos Sainz’s retirement that triggered a virtual safety car phase (VSC) in Baku. Sergio Perez, who was in the lead at the time, missed the opportunity to change his graining tires under VSC due to a misunderstanding with his race engineer. The Leclerc driving behind him, on the other hand, came into the pits.

“I think our team reacted very well at the time of the VSC,” says Binotto. “We called Charles in even though the entrance to the pits was very close. We were very alert and the driver reacted very well. That gave us an advantage at the time.”

Verstappen was on “box-opposite” strategy

Verstappen was told when the VSC was activated to do the exact opposite of what Leclerc is doing. So when the Ferrari pulled into the pits, the reigning world champion and eventual winner of the Azerbaijan Grand Prix fell by the wayside.

At the end of the VSC phase on lap 10, Verstappen had completed one stop less, but was 12.7 seconds ahead of Leclerc. By the time Verstappen pitted on lap 18, the gap had shrunk to 7.2 seconds. Verstappen now had the tires nine laps fresher, but was more than 13 seconds down for the rest of the race.

“We will analyze the numbers carefully and calculate before the next race how the race would probably have turned out,” said Binotto on Sunday evening in Baku. “But we felt really strong when we were in the lead on a very good tyre. And Charles was very happy with the handling too.”

A joy that didn’t last long. On lap 20, Leclerc’s Ferrari power unit blew up. At that point he was 12.4 seconds ahead of Verstappen, who was just about to pick up the pace with the absolute best time in the first sector. There was no more showdown between the two.

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