The German Retail Association (HDE) sees the mood of local consumers at the beginning of the year on an upward trend. The HDE consumption barometer rose in January for the third month in a row, the industry organization announced on Monday. In view of the continuing difficult framework conditions, the index, for which 1,600 people are surveyed monthly on consumption-related topics, is improving “still only in small steps” and is “still at a low level in a multi-year comparison”, the association admitted.
HDE sees a positive trend in economic expectations
A more confident assessment of the overall economic development by those surveyed was decisive for the recent increase in the consumption barometer, explained the HDE. “This sustained positive trend complements the picture of the more optimistic current economic forecasts and the further brightened mood in companies,” says the association.
However, individual income expectations have fallen somewhat compared to December. For the authors of the study, the still high inflation was a possible reason: “Under certain circumstances” “more and more consumers are becoming aware that despite larger wage increases and inflation premiums, their real wages are falling,” they explained.
Propensity to buy remains stable even after the Christmas business
In view of these ambivalent assessments, the propensity to buy of the consumers surveyed increased only marginally. However, the market researchers were optimistic about this development, since “in the past two years, the propensity to buy had fallen at the beginning of the year after the Christmas business”. This seasonal dent did not materialize this time. The propensity to save also changed only marginally compared to December.
The current findings raised hopes of a further improvement in the situation among the authors of the study. “Should the further overall economic development be more positive than expected a few months ago, the current trend in consumer sentiment in Germany should also continue,” they explained. This applies “especially when the various state measures such as gas and electricity price brakes come as a relief for the majority of consumers”.