For the first time in more than half a century, a Kennedy is joining the race for the White House. This Monday, Robert F. Kennedy junior – son of the assassinated presidential candidate ‘RFK’ in 1968, nephew of the assassinated President JFK in 1963 – would announce in Philadelphia that he will participate as an independent candidate in the November 2024 election. The former environmental activist and prominent anti-vaxxer had wanted to participate in the Democratic primary race. However, President Joe Biden’s party kept the door firmly closed to the blackest sheep of the Kennedy dynasty.
RFK Jr., as he is known in the American media, had no chance of winning the Democratic candidacy according to every poll. Still, Republicans in recent months have gloated over his attempts to break into the Democratic Party. If the super-fit, toned Kennedy (69) were to compete against the older and stiff Biden (80) in the primaries, he could damage the president in the run-up to the general race, was the Republican hope.
However, Kennedy will now participate as independent, after Biden did not want to participate in the debate with him and the party leadership continued to exclude him as “unsuitable”. This makes his influence on the further course of the presidential race a lot more unpredictable. Because although Kennedy does not seem to have a serious chance of winning the White House, he could still get a few percent of the votes. And despite his famous surname, he seems to be more likely to attract the Republican electorate than the Democrats.
Conspiracy theories embraced
This appeal to Republican voters has a lot to do with his attitude during the corona pandemic, which broke out in early 2020. He then became a prominent critic of the vaccines that were rapidly developed against SARS-CoV-2. This criticism fits within his years of embracing all kinds of conspiracy theories. According to Kennedy, WiFi radiation would lead to ‘brain softening’, fluoride and other chemicals in American drinking water cause cancer, IQ declines and gender dysphoria, and antidepressants are the cause behind the many school shootings.
During the pandemic, RFK Jr. pumped. in addition to medical disinformation, there are also anti-Semitic and racist conspiracy theories around. For example, he suggested a dark international conspiracy behind the outbreak, because the virus would affect white and black people more severely than Chinese and Jews. The video in which he launched his bid for president this spring was so full of disinformation that it was removed by the YouTube platform.
Although he also harbors progressive positions, such as support for abortion rights, Kennedy’s vaccine skepticism resonates better with Republican voters. Although the vaccines were already available under ‘their’ President Donald Trump, many of his voters have turned away from the shot. Kennedy’s view of the Ukraine war (according to him a setup of neocons and the CIA) also fits better with the pro-Russian sympathies of many Trumpists.
While many Democrats were embarrassed by Kennedy, he did receive messages of support from leaders in Trump’s entourage. For example, former spin doctor Steve Bannon stated that Kennedy would be an “excellent choice” as Trump’s vice presidential candidate. Kennedy’s campaign coffers also mainly received money from Republican donors. And in voter surveys he receives much higher marks from Republican voters than from Democrats.
Influence on the conflict
In a poll by Reuters/Ipsos Kennedy obtained 14 percent last week in a potential three-way battle with Biden and Trump, who would end up with 31 and 33 percent respectively. However, this is only one poll, thirteen months before the polls. Once the campaign picks up steam, third-party candidates usually get sidelined by the battle between Democrats and Republicans.
Yet some manage to turn the race upside down. Right-wing billionaire Ross Perot helped Bill Clinton win the presidency in 1992 by winning 19 percent of the vote. The green candidate like Ralph Nader did the same for George Bush Jr. in 2000 with his almost 3 percent. If the race next year – as in 2020 – is decided in only a handful of states with a difference of only a few tens of thousands of votes, Kennedy can claim a decisive role.