Twelve days ago, Russian troops invaded Ukraine, apparently assuming that the “special military operation” would force the neighboring country to capitulate within 24 hours. President Putin thus unleashed a war the likes of which Europe has not seen since 1945.
The attack on a sovereign state provoked massive reactions in the rest of the world, led by Europe and the United States. Without directly interfering in the war, they assist Ukraine with military and humanitarian aid – while trying to isolate Russia as much as possible.
The weapon of ‘economic sanction’ is not only used by governments that denounce Putin’s acts of war in the strongest possible way, and thus want to force him to withdraw his armies. Particularly noteworthy is the domino effect after the first sanctions came into effect; corporations, universities, sports federations, museums, orchestras and many other institutions are taking a stand against Russia’s aggression by terminating contracts, canceling alliances and closing branches. From airlines and oil companies to banking, from Louis Vuitton to Netflix and from DHL to Ikea: Russia, the Russian economy and the Russian population are affected in all sectors. One starts on principle, the other because of potential danger, an uncertain future, or the expected lack of resources, parts or information.
As a result, the Russian population threatens to become completely isolated. Not only because of the impending collapse of its own economy, but also because of Putin’s reign of terror over his subjects. This does not only affect political opponents, critical journalists or protesting citizens. Putin punishes unwelcome expressions so harshly that no one in Russia can feel safe anymore. Since Putin launched the attack on Ukraine, many thousands of peaceful protesters have been rounded up and put behind bars. Virtually all free media have since been shut down, have fled or are trying to report the events anonymously.
Significantly, the Finnish railways are deploying additional trains between St. Petersburg and Helsinki in response to the massive influx of Russian citizens who feel compelled to seek safe accommodation elsewhere. The emigrated Russians fear not only shortages from the sanctions, but also the draconian legislation enacted under Putin’s dictatorship to intimidate and silence opponents.
The economic boycott from ‘the West’ and other countries is understandable, given the actions of Putin’s troops in Ukraine – and the sanctions could potentially affect Russia’s war and future in the long run. At the same time, Western governments must ask themselves whether a complete decoupling of Russia from the West offers a way out of this perilous crisis in the heart of Europe. Further isolation of the country could lead to further hardening – and to a world in which the Kremlin has nothing to lose.
As difficult as it may seem now, eventually a way out of the war will have to be found. Isolating Russia is an understandable reaction, but it can also backfire. It is therefore of the utmost importance to look for a mediator or country that can contact Moscow, and with whom Putin is willing to talk.
A version of this article also appeared in NRC on the morning of March 8, 2022