When it was twenty degrees again recently, I saw a boomer again a newspaper article from 1937 on Twitter showing that it was exceptionally warm then too. And I always thought that such deniers and doubters, who are like a horse behind the cart, were the biggest threat to the climate transition!
I don’t think so anymore. No, the biggest threat is slick CEOs who, with their promises about sustainability attract investors whose clients want to invest ‘green’. In their talent development programs and leadership training, these CEOs have learned how to be visionary and to set ‘dots on the horizon’. Accompanied by a confetti cannon, they have set ambitious climate goals – without a plan to actually achieve them. Meanwhile, their engineers are laughing out loud at all the board mess. “Look at what our CEO is saying again at the climate summit!”
In the meantime, a dozen good ambitions can be lumped together with broken climate promises. The coalition of major plastic users (including Nestlé, Coca Cola and PepsiCo) promised to switch to 100 percent recyclable plastic by 2025 – almost certainly going to fail. The sustainable development goals to be achieved by 2030 – is seriously lagging behind. One and a half degrees – no more feasible card. If we continue on the chosen path, the world will soon be 2.5 degrees warmer.
This week I joined the country’s energy-intensive industry, the Tatas and Yara’s, Dows and Shells, and got the strong impression that even that 2.5 degrees has been underestimated. Very basic additions have not been made. With 75 gigawatts of offshore wind, will there be enough green energy in the country for all electrification plans? Are there enough ‘green’ carbon atoms for the companies that want to get rid of fossil fuels? Will there be enough green hydrogen?
The answer: most likely not. The heavy chemical industry will not achieve the minimum savings, as agreed in covenants with the government. Even the under-the-carpet-sweeping strategy of underground CO2storage in the North Sea (Porthos) appears to be unfeasible in the short term, because nitrogen would precipitate on the coastal areas during construction.
Hope comes from techniques that are not yet marketable. Nuclear fusion, smart new solar heat and raw materials made from CO2. But hopes and promises are no longer enough. We don’t want to pee any more competitions from the green marketing department, as sustainability activist Werner Schouten aptly put it. articulated. No more investing in making old stuff more efficient, like Urgenda founder Marjan Minnesma it says, but taking realistic steps towards climate neutrality.
We want real investment in factories that will create a new, clean industry. The progress is not in the light earlier in the office and the thermostat one degree colder. The industry bosses now have to build something new and future-proof at lightning speed. In 2050, this country will be climate neutral. Then the radiator foil is also finished. Then we have to say, in transition. And yesterday.
In the meantime, a lot is saved. First with the help of a pandemic, now the gas market is taking over. A Groningen aluminum smelter fell over and a large number of industrial electrolyzers are turned off. The chemical industry is now threatening to leave the Netherlands with emissions and all, after which fertilizer, steel and other raw materials for eight hundred million Europeans will be obtained from elsewhere. What remains is a country that can be very proud of its super-sustainable service economy. Cosmetic successes. Mega multinationals that promise net CO . by 20302 absorb rather than expel. Great news, unless it’s from Microsoft comes: a less energy-intensive industry.
Our green investment portfolios are full of those types of companies. But we don’t get big hits with it. It is investment escapism of the highest order. We will just have to look our Naphtha crackers, the cooking gas and ammonia factories straight in the face and follow them closely. Every day we have to hold them to their promises for the future.
Rosanne Hertzberger is a microbiologist.
A version of this article also appeared in the newspaper of November 12, 2022