It’s not just Donald Trump who did NATO a disservice last week, saying he would “encourage” Russia to do what it wants with countries that spend less than 2 percent of GDP on defense. European government leaders and ministers also damaged NATO. By publicly criticizing Trump’s statement and suggesting other remedies, they reinforced Trump’s message and confirmed NATO’s image as a weakened, uncoordinated cackling club. There is only one way in which Europe can emphasize that NATO is strong and in solidarity and that is, in the words of Mr Remkes: “Shut the valves.” Actions rather than words. This is urgent: if NATO’s soundness is further questioned, it is Europe that could be attacked. Not America.
Of course it is annoying what Trump says about NATO. He is a bully who constantly throws clubs into chicken coops. He wants everyone to fall in love and respond to him. In this way he determines the agenda and the parameters of the debate. This way he stays on the move. This is strategy. But by continuing to bite, Europeans are helping him achieve his goal: a better NATO deal for America.
Trump is a transactional man. In the name of ‘America first’ he provokes everyone until he has his way. So far it has worked great. American presidents before him complained that Washington is pulling three-quarters of the NATO cartwheel. Clinton squeaked, father and son Bush squeaked. Obama called Europeans ‘free riders‘. But it was only when Trump was president that Europe started paying more for defense. It is unclear whether Trump will become president again – but Europeans have already broken out in a clammy sweat. NATO boss Stoltenberg hastily showed new figures: look, 18 of the 31 NATO countries are now above 2 percent, compared to three in 2014! Europe spends $380 billion on defense! A record!
Even a more sympathetic American president will become stricter with finances. The war in Ukraine has made Europe more dependent on America than before. But the Americans are also needed in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Europe must do more itself, Trump or not. That is difficult: more European defense completely shakes up European power relations. Everyone pushes their own plans. Germany, zero in defense, wants to continue to lean on America. France opts for sovereign European defense. And under what nuclear umbrella can Europe take shelter if the American one is collapsed? Europeans must solve this puzzle now. Otherwise, countries will continue to rush to Washington in panic to buy their own security bilaterally. Of course Trump wants that. But it is not good for security in Europe.
Many think Trump wants to ditch NATO. But when he was president, more American troops arrived in Europe. And last year, record numbers of American weapons were sold in Europe: 81 billion dollars, against 52 billion in 2022. Germany, Poland, the Czech Republic, Romania – they bought cross-eyed. NATO remains a top tool for American business interests and power politics. And don’t forget that new American law that prohibits the president from leaving NATO without majorities in Congress and Senate. Why would Trump leave if things are going his way?
The ‘Weimar’ meeting of German, French and Polish foreign ministers in Paris on Monday is a good example of how Europe can respond to Trump: not responding to provocations, but working on collective anti-aircraft defenses, intelligence, and so on. The new EU financing plan for a European defense industry, the cooperation of Dutch and German army units, and the Dutch-German-Polish agreement to make roads suitable for military transports to Eastern Europe are also good news – infrastructure has been peace is barely built on heavy equipment. That is the answer to Trump: not howling indignantly, but rolling up your sleeves.
Caroline de Gruyter writes weekly about politics and Europe.