Much separates them, but gradually more brings them together. France and the Netherlands, two near-neighbors on the Atlantic coast, ancient and self-confident nations. Once opposites in Europe’s game of states, such as Catholic monarchy versus Protestant regent republic, now increasingly united in the turmoil of our time. A time when, with a word from the French thinker Raymond Aron (that Emmanuel Macron likes to quote) ‘history shows its tragic side’.
Next week, the French president will pay a state visit to the Netherlands, the first in almost 25 years. On Tuesday, the monarch and queen will receive him as a fellow head of state in the Royal Palace on Dam Square. On Wednesday, Macron will speak in The Hague as de facto head of government with colleague Mark Rutte, in a joint cabinet meeting in which each is accompanied by a group of ministers. Rarely have bilateral relations been so good.
Naturally, the Netherlands wins with a close relationship with one of Europe’s most powerful states. Conversely, this is not self-evident. Why – seen from France – pay a lot of attention to a small, northern country? You used to have to find Dutch novels in French bookshops on the ‘Scandinavia’ shelf. The special thing is that the Netherlands is now sharply on the radar of Paris.
This rise goes back to the pivotal year 2016. The British voted for Brexit, the Americans for Trump and it was beginning to dawn in the US and Europe that Xi’s China really wants to become the world’s number one technologically and industrially. These shocks shifted all European relations.
First of all diplomatically. With Brexit-London, The Hague lost a liberal and transatlantic ally in the EU, a counterbalance to Franco-German initiatives. The first reflex was to step into the British shoes; these turned out to be a size too big. Subsequently, then Minister of Finance Wopke Hoekstra gathered a ‘Hanze coalition’ of like-minded small member states, such as Denmark and Sweden. However, this resulted in insufficient voting weight and clout in Brussels meeting rooms.
Prime Minister Rutte showed the way with his personal relationship with (then) Angela Merkel and Macron, who was elected in 2017. The Netherlands became a discussion partner for Berlin and Paris and found a role in the Franco-German relationship, not with the big mouth of a British Prime Minister, but as a mediator at times subtly pleading his own cause. The ties with Madrid and (more recently) with Rome have also been strengthened. Research by the University of Gothenburg into how EU countries estimate each other’s position shows that the ‘network capital’ of the Netherlands increased sharply between 2015 and 2021.
The French also built on their European relations. They also miss the British. The relationship with the Germans, solemnly cherished, remains difficult. Macron concluded a friendship treaty with Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s Italy at the end of 2021, which symbolically placed that partner on an equal footing with Germany. At the beginning of this year, something similar happened with Spain. In this way, the French are giving themselves institutionally anchored consultations with the three major neighboring countries.
Next week’s meeting between team Macron and team Rutte is the second in a short time, after a Paris meeting in March 2022. It brings The Hague to almost the same diplomatic level as Berlin, Rome and Madrid; a remarkable promotion, thanks to the excellent understanding of ‘Mark’ and ‘Emmanuel’.
This unexpected rapprochement succeeds because the mood in the EU has also changed. Not everything revolves around the market, the euro and finances anymore – subjects where the liberal and frugal The Hague often faced a protectionist and solidarity-based Paris. No, it is now also about security, about migration and border control, about climate and about the pace at which the EU should let candidates like Ukraine enter – so many fields in which interests and visions match.
In fact, even on economic themes such as industrial policy or trade, the sharp edges of the Franco-Dutch opposition are wearing off. The Hague moves. With the sobering experiences of Brexit, Trump and Xi – plus the pandemic and Putin – Dutch politics and diplomacy are gradually breaking away from a mindset of frictionless globalization and power-free multilateralism.
Sometimes you hear that the European Union would become more ‘French’. This is right. If understood as follows: unlike in The Hague, Brussels or Berlin, people in Paris after 1945 have not stopped thinking about economy, culture or technology in terms of power and strategy. This gives the country a mental and practical edge as Europe enters an era where such language is essential to survive.
Luke of Mediator is a political philosopher and historian.
A version of this article also appeared in the newspaper of April 5, 2023