Wasting time and daydreaming, that’s summer. But those who let thoughts wander must be prepared for nasty surprises. I soon received a visit from Donald Trump. What would his re-election mean for Europe, for NATO, for support for Ukraine?
The election is not until November next year, but Trump is the most important Republican candidate and the war plays a role in the battle within the Republican party. One of Trump’s competitors, former Vice President Mike Pence, had just arrived in Kyiv. Trump himself denounced the delivery of US cluster bombs.
In May, he declined to say whether he would send weapons to Ukraine. This week he explained what he would do. “I know Zelensky very well and I know Putin even better. […] I would say to Zelensky: no more, you have to make a deal. I would say to Putin: if you don’t make a deal, we’re going to give him a lot. We [geven Oekraïne] more than they’ve ever had if need be. I’ll close that deal in a day. One day.”
It was a Trump classic: the self-proclaimed super-dealmaker who will fix it. That’s not a strategy, that’s a bluff. Exactly what Trump would do is impossible to predict. And the question is whether he already knows it himself. But the very idea that he should lead the Ukraine coalition is good for nightmares.
What applies to Ukraine also applies to NATO. In his first term, Trump already toyed with the idea of leaving the alliance. NATO diplomats consider such a scenario highly unlikely because the US derives a great deal of power from an alliance. But Trump can also seriously spoil mutual relations, as he proved before – and NATO cannot afford that either with war in Europe.
When Brussels had to formulate an answer to the bewildering Russian aggression, there was one thing to hold on to. There was a president with a heart for Europe in the White House. It was Biden who set the Ukraine course: far-reaching support for Kyiv and strengthening NATO, none boots on the ground. Biden’s motto still applies. How long will that support last? Quite simply, says Biden: for as long as it takes. Last week at the NATO summit in Vilnius, the G7 countries pledged to help Ukraine defend itself against Russia for years to come.
Yet at the top you could already taste that the elections are approaching. Czech president and former NATO general Petr Pavel said Ukraine has about six months to make a breakthrough on the battlefield. After that, it will be winter and elections in the US, among others, are approaching. Then the willingness to supply weapons on a large scale will decrease, he predicted. “All these circumstances add up to the conclusion that what has been achieved by the end of this year will become the starting point for negotiations.”
Last week there was also suddenly the word “gratitude”. Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan was hit hard by a Ukrainian activist. Sullivan then praised the courage of the Ukrainians, but also pointed out that the Americans deserve a “certain measure of gratitude” for their support. British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said the UK is not a web store, not an Amazon for arms supplies, and that Ukraine sometimes needs to show some gratitude.
Wallace, who has since announced his departure from politics, did not think that Ukraine is ungrateful, but that showing gratitude helps to convince voters and politicians who do not want to provide weapons to do so. Wallace clumsily made an important point: support is not automatic, political relations are shifting, Kyiv must continue to fight on the diplomatic front as well.
In view of elections and an unpredictable Trump, it would be a good idea now to anchor US support for Ukraine as much as possible, preferably in legislation such as The Economists suggested.
And if support from the US becomes uncertain, Europe must do more. There is a plan in Brussels to help Kyiv with 50 billion euros in economic years. And this week, EU ministers discussed a proposal to release €20 billion over four years for arms financing. That would make support for Ukraine stormproof. But then those plans have to get through the always difficult European budget discussions. Kyiv may also lose the war in the West.
Geopolitics editor Michael Kerres writes here every other week about the tilting world order.
A version of this article also appeared in the newspaper on July 21, 2023.