People cling to iconic artworks and smear paintings with tomato soup and mashed potatoes, but the climate news this week was dramatic enough even without the actions of climate activists. What all countries of the world are doing to combat climate change so far falls “sadly” short. It is “woefully inadequate,” concluded the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) in beautiful English on Thursday.
If governments do not intervene faster and harder, the earth will warm by 2.4 to 2.8 degrees by the end of this century. That is far above what countries have agreed in the Paris agreement: a maximum of 2 degrees, if possible 1.5 degrees. In order to still comply with these agreements, global greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced rapidly. To have a chance of 2 degrees with 30 percent in 2030, to achieve 1.5 degrees with 45 percent. The path now: 5 to 10 percent.
Greenhouse gas emissions may have taken a hit when we were in lockdown at the start of the corona crisis, but last year record amounts of CO were already released.2, methane and nitrous oxide were measured, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) noted in a worrying report on Wednesday. The concentration of methane in particular rose exceptionally sharply. Why is not clear. Like Unep, WMO advocates a rapid systemic change in society: of our energy, our transport, how we build, live, eat and make products. Action!
There are big differences between countries, according to the UN report. And between promises and deeds. The European Union, the United Kingdom, the United States, Australia and Japan are better on track to reduce their emissions than, for example, China and India. But the task is still great for all countries.
The big question now is not only whether countries will act quickly. But also whether the energy crisis that Putin unleashed is a step backwards or forwards. The cabinet pushed the coal-fired power stations harder (more emissions). At the same time, the high energy prices result in less energy consumption (less emissions). And for a faster switch to sustainable energy: solar panels are not easy to get hold of (less emissions).
One organization came out with a more positive analysis this week. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could be a historic turning point towards a cleaner energy system, the International Energy Agency thinks. Renewable energy and nuclear power are given a boost by the Russian gas war. According to the IEA, an intergovernmental organization of mainly Western countries, emissions from energy will peak around 2025. Thereafter, the use of fossil fuels will steadily decline. Still not enough to bring global warming below 2.5 degrees, by the way.
For the time being, there is also a gap between promises and deeds in the Dutch cabinet. Rutte IV’s plans are ambitious but not yet concrete enough, the Council of State ruled on Budget Day. Now you can say: the coalition agreement has yet to land, take it easy. But even then it is unlikely that the cabinet will achieve its ambitious goals (55 to 60 percent less emissions by 2030), climate planning agency PBL wrote about the coalition agreement last year. The chance would be greater if the cabinet relied less on subsidies and more on rules, standards and pricing of pollution, according to the PBL. Such a hard standard was agreed in the EU this week: from 2035 new cars may not be CO2 emit more. That works like a charm: hard standards lead to less emissions and more innovation, researchers from PBL and Tilburg University recently concluded. Free for the government and for nothing.
Marike Stellinga is an economist and political reporter. She writes about politics and economics here every week.
A version of this article also appeared in the newspaper of October 29, 2022