Are you also more intelligent, friendlier and fairer than average? Then you are not alone. A vast majority of humanity sees itself that way. Pretty funny. Psychologists call this it ‘better than average effect‘ and it is one of the many manifestations of self-overestimation (in the English-language research literature: overconfidence† This family of fallacies often leads to misjudgments and disappointing outcomes. Think of bankruptcies, crises and wars.
Self overestimation is nevertheless very persistent and widespread† It affects men and women from all cultures.
How did that happen? An important reason is that the opposite, self-doubt, has an evolutionary disadvantage: you don’t score with your ilk with it. That not only determined the reproductive chances of prehistoric worriers, but also influences our career today. We would rather give an important job to a colleague who seems confident in her case, than to someone who hesitates and doubts about his own abilities.
Recent research by psychologist Joey Cheng and her colleagues show that overconfidence is also contagious. For example, if you work with a co-worker who overestimates himself a bit, you will too. In this way it can happen that an entire department or even an entire company develops arrogant traits in the long run.
Researchers distinguished by the way all kinds of self-esteem. Check if you recognize them. With yourself or colleagues.
You may estimate your own abilities higher than they actually are (overestimation†
You can also rate yourself as better than your colleagues (transfer†
And you can estimate your own judgments as more accurate than they really are (overprecision† The latter is the most common.
In addition, we like to believe that we: have more control over situations than we actually have (illusion of control† tasks require less time than they actually take (timing optimism† and that something we consider desirable has a greater chance of actually happening (desirability effect†
How do you avoid being swept up in this ubiquitous and contagious delusion? A few tips from the popular science magazine de Scientific Americansummed up in my own words.
Focus on the right information. When assessing someone’s abilities, do not pay attention to signals such as body position, eye contact and tone of speech. They can be quite misleading. Rather look at hard facts. For example, ask about someone’s experience, knowledge and results. Also ask for evidence in those areas. Of course you can also apply this to yourself.
Appreciate intellectual modesty. On radio, TV and online, lay people usually speak with more certainty about current issues than scientists. Realize that doubt and nuance are often hallmarks of experience and expertise. The more you know about a subject, the better you know what you don’t know.
Good. Just between you and me. Of course we don’t really need these tips. After all, we do not suffer from overestimation. When it comes to correctly estimating our own and other people’s capacities, we are – for sure – above average. However?
Ben Tiggelaar writes weekly about personal leadership, work and management.
A version of this article also appeared in the newspaper of 2 July 2022