Few Europeans will have noticed that last July the US Senate adopted the so-called Rounds amendment, an addition to the defense budget. This bans four countries (North Korea, China, Iran and Russia) from purchasing agricultural land in the United States. The proposal came from Senator Mike Rounds, a Republican from South Dakota. The argument, in his words, is that these countries are adversaries of the US, focused only on spying on American knowledge and resources, and that the ban “our homeland” makes it safer.
The fact that China is on this list next to a completely failed state like North Korea is symptomatic. Declaring the purchase of agricultural land as a threat to national security appears to be yet another low point in US-China relations. But as always, more things are happening at the same time and it would be imprudent to judge too quickly about the state of affairs.
At the time of writing, the Chinese Foreign Minister is on his way to the US and on November 11, if all goes according to plan, President Xi and President Biden will meet. It is not certain what the gentlemen will discuss, although the Middle East and Ukraine will be on the agenda, and probably also mutual trade barriers.
That meeting may offer a bright spot in gloomy times. Yes, China just restricted the export of graphite, a key ingredient for electric car batteries, possibly in response to the ban on land purchases. But it would be a mistake to confuse short-term tensions with long-term interests and contradictions.
Sensible people realize that a trade war is in no one’s interest. However, the situation is asymmetrical. China cannot meet its needs for energy, raw materials and food for the time being. The US can do this much better, thanks to geological luck and a much smaller population. China’s population is more than four times that of America’s. The effort to lift the population out of poverty remains as urgent as ever. If trade with America is restricted, China will have to strengthen ties with partners elsewhere.
In the US, public sentiment is currently negative. Plots to undermine the US are attributed to China (see Rounds), which are amplified on mainstream and social media and amplified by polarized right-wing and left-wing politicians. They hope to achieve electoral gain by doing so. In China, there are of course anti-American expressions on the internet, but the political statements are calmer.
The deteriorating trade relations conceal a deeper conflict, that of value systems. The real fear in the US is not just about China’s economic dominance, but the ruthlessness of an authoritarian system. In China people fear the unpredictability and possible chaos of a democracy. These historically determined differences cannot be bridged for the time being, although the younger generations are more similar in their materialism than both countries admit.
Europe hardly plays a role in all this. Yet. Blindly following the US is as shortsighted as misunderstanding developments in China. The Cold War mentality could return in the US. China, which alternately was open and closed under different dynasties, could withdraw into itself again. The European effort must be not to end up in a period of closed doors.