He spent 12 years of his youth in the ranks of the guerrillas, taking the alias of a revolutionary general from “One Hundred Years of Solitude” Gabriel Garcia Marquez. Later, he would serve as the progressive mayor of Bogotá, and as a senator.
He ran unsuccessfully for the presidency twice before, unable to jump the conservative wall erected almost two centuries ago around La Casa de Nariño, the seat of the Colombian government. But last Sunday Gustavo Petro, 62, was finally able to achieve victory against a Rodolfo Hernández for whom the support of Uribismo was a lead lifesaver for a Colombia that -like Peru and Chile- opted for the extremes but finally privileged a left capable of winking to the center “We will not betray the electorate who has yelled at history,” Petro said in his triumphant speech, before promising that he would not kick the capitalist economy’s chessboard either, with Venezuelan-style expropriations.
Road
The journey -and the turn- of Petro, from the ranks of the guerrilla M-19 to the presidential palace in Bogotá, included an arrest for weapons possession and surviving torture. In 1990 the M-19 demobilized, and some of its members signed the current constitution. Others were assassinated, including Carlos Pizarro, his presidential candidate that year. What Mayor of Bogotaearned a reputation for being pushy and belligerent in the face of his critics, while also implementing a program to help the homeless.
“Petro has a different vision from Colombia. He has focused his campaign on the unprotected, those who live in the slums of big cities, as well as black and indigenous communities, ”explained his supporters after the victory. on the other side was Rodolfo Hernandez, a tycoon and former mayor of Bucaramanga prone to blunders: he once referred to Hitler as a “great German thinker.” The far-right candidate blessed by Álvaro Uribe, the mentor of current President Iván Duque, who will leave his chair in August.
And the process of changing Petro includes the vice president France Marquez, the first black woman to hold the position. She is an environmentalist, single mother and defender of human rights, the right wing criticized her for having been a beneficiary of different social plans. “After 214 years we have achieved a government of the people, a popular government, of callous peoplea government of the people standing up, of the nobodies of Colombia”, said Márquez at the celebration.
Expectations
In spite of the leftist euphoria after the result at the polls, Petro’s time in office is likely to be extremely challenging. His 50.47% of the votes not only gives him little power in Congress, but also reflects that an important part of the country views him with mistrust, and equates him on the one hand with the rebel groups to which he belonged, and on the other to populism in the region.
“In a traditional right-wing conservative country, some Colombians fear how much a leftist government can change”, recognized Silvana Amaya, an analyst at the Control Risks consultancy. “Some Colombians compare the left with Chavez and the socioeconomic misfortune of Venezuela. Others consider that a country that has been experiencing an internal conflict for more than 60 years, led by leftist guerrilla groups, is floundering by allowing that ideology to rule in Colombia,” she adds.
His plans to restructure Colombia’s economy, moving away from fossil fuels and promoting agriculture, spook the markets. But the United States does not look badly on the replacement in the region: it has a good relationship with the Mexico of Andres Manuel López Obrador, and the Chile of Gabriel Boricwhom Joe Biden received bilaterally during the Summit of the Americas: long before Alberto Fernández, who has an appointment scheduled for July 25.
“Today we celebrate Colombian democracy and its peaceful election,” Brian Nichols, Under Secretary of State for Colombia, tweeted after the election. USA for Western Hemisphere Affairs. “We look forward to working closely with the Petro administration to further mutual goals for the Colombian and American people.”
Doubts
A key point on Petro’s agenda will be the fragile peace process with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) rebels. The treaty that he signed Juan Manuel Santos In 2016, it formally ended five decades of civil war: a confrontation in which 260,000 people died, expelling in the process more than 7 million Colombians who sought refuge in other territories.
That agreement has been hesitantly implemented by the outgoing government of Ivan Duke, who has been accused of deliberately delaying its implementation. And the dissident factions of the FARC that did not demobilize, and other rebel groups such as the National Liberation Army (ELN), continue to dominate entire regions, while profiting from drug trafficking.
“Petro is the candidate who promised the most, and in more detail, around the 2016 peace agreement,” said Adam Isacson, director of defense oversight in Washington. “A key element of the Petro plan is to increase governance and basic services in the abandoned countryside, where armed groups and coca continue to thrive, and that is a core commitment of the peace agreement. Much of his electoral base is in these historically troubled areas, which overwhelmingly voted for him,” Isacson notes.
If you manage to expand the State to conquer the map at marginal points, you will have accomplished a huge mission. In the process, a Colombian economy that marks a growth of 12% after the pandemic should not collide. The replacement of oil was questioned by the Lula da Silva. And the nationalization of private AFP pensions, economists warn, will only generate more deficits without solving the underlying problem: growing poverty.
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