The ECMWF starts its own forecast with a disclaimer: it is “notoriously difficult” to predict in advance how ‘harsh’ the winter will be. For the time being, in combination with the high gas prices, things are not looking very good. After all, a high pressure area will make the months of November and December somewhat cooler and drier, according to the ECMWF. In addition, there will be less wind than usual. If the weather forecast comes true, it will be more difficult for families to save on the high gas prices. Wind energy will yield less.
The big culprit? Weather phenomenon La Niña, the cool counterpart of El Nino. La Niña refers to a large-scale cooling of the sea surface in the Pacific Ocean, causing changes in wind, pressure and rainfall. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) previously warned that this weather phenomenon would continue until the end of 2022.
Over Europe, La Niña could create a high pressure area with a cold easterly wind. “As a result, there is a chance of lower temperatures,” according to Carlo Buontempo (ECMWF), director at Copernicus Climate Change Service. However, he warns that more reliable data on winter weather will only be available in three to four weeks.
David Dehenauw, weatherman at the RMI and VTM Nieuws, agrees: “I usually avoid seasonal forecasts because it can often go in all directions.” In other words, predictions so far in advance are less accurate. According to Dehenauw, it does not look like the winter will be abnormally cold for the time being. He also adds that La Niña usually does not have such a great effect on Europe: “Especially in South America, the weather phenomenon often leads to colder temperatures. In Europe, La Niña plays a much smaller role.”