The uncertainty regarding the PSOE’s negotiations with ERC and Junts for the investiture of Pedro Sanchez They are taking their toll on the socialists and are allowing the PP to close the gap in the Sociological Research Center (CIS) survey. According to him october barometerPSOE and PP are in a technical tie, with just four tenths of an advantage for Sánchez over Alberto Núñez Feijóoin a survey carried out after the failed investiture of the PP candidate and in full contact with the pro-independence parties about the amnesty and the referendum.
In its September survey, the demoscopic institute that he presides Jose Felix Tezanos continued to lead the PSOE with a vote estimate of 33.5% compared to 31.7% of the PP, a situation inverse to that recorded in the general elections in July, which the Popular Party won with 33.05% to 31.7% of the Socialists. Now Sánchez would obtain 32.6% of the votes, one point less than a month ago, and Feijóo has climbed to 32.2%, half a point more than in September.
In that study last month, Add appeared ahead of Vox, with 11.9% and 11.1% respectively, positions that had been reversed in the July general elections. Now the coalition of Yolanda Diaz The difference increases by growing eight tenths, to 12.7%, while the extreme right has fallen one point, to 10.1%. With this rebound, Sumar is the party that has risen the most in the survey, that is, the one that obtains the most profit at the moment from the investiture negotiations, while Vox is the party that has lost the most ground since the elections.
By blocs, the current Government coalition (PSOE and Sumar) would take 45.3% of the votes, while if the votes of PP and Vox are added, they would be below, with 42.3%. The rise of Sumar and the sharp fall of Vox would once again tip the balance towards the left bloc.
The independence struggle, which was tied in September, is now resolved in favor of CKDhence Carles Puigdemont For now, he is unable to capitalize on the prominence he is having in the investiture. Together, key for Sánchez to be sworn in as president, loses half a point and remains with 1.3%; while CKD rises two tenths, to 1.9%. For its part, EH Bildu, the only party that has so far given its support to Sánchez, would fall half a point, to 0.9% of the votes; and the PNV, with one tenth less, remains at 0.8%.
It is striking in this survey that an extra-parliamentary party like the PACMA obtain 1% of the votes, a percentage higher than that of some nationalist formations. He BNG improves one tenth, up to 0.8%, and suffers a decrease Canarian Coalitionwhich goes from 0.3% to 0.1%, and UPNwhich falls from 0.2% to 0.1%.
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The field work for the October survey, which usually runs around 4,000 interviewsstarted days after Feijóo had failed in his investiture debate and when the King opened a new round of consultations that ended with the designation of Sánchez as a candidate.
In those first 12 days of October, the political news continued to focus on amnesty and the self-determination that ERC and Junts demand to support Sánchez’s investiture, an issue that has remained in the foreground to this day. The CIS survey will allow us to see the effects of these debates on Spanish public opinion and on vote estimate of the different parties, as well as in the evaluation of the leaders of the political formations and the Government ministers, two tables that were not included in the previous survey.