Met 4.8 per cent groei in the first quarter converted into the Chinese economy little manufacture na het tegenvallende last quarter of the previous year (groei: 4 per cent), maar remains ze ver van de 5.5 per cent groei die de Chinese overheid zich dit jaar ten doel heeft gested. Uit maandag gepubliceerde kwartaalcijfers blijkt dat the Chinese economy lijdt onder the open stacking of lockdowns and covidrestricties, which het hevigst zijn sinds at the beginning of the pandemic, and onder the onzekerheid door de oorlog in Oekraïne.
When there is a rust, there are many worse results for Maart schuilgaan. So there was a retail sale in Maart with 3.5 per cent, a rise in workloosheid to 5.8 per cent (een onderschatting), and there were imports to China tot stand still. The previous year hard aangepakete vastgoedsector zakte nog dieper way: de woningverkoop daalde in waarde met 26.7 percent, the biggest terugval are February 2020.
The economic prospects for 2020 are the biggest, toen de covidpandemie in Wuhan uitbrak in large parts of China meanwhile, there were strict restrictions. With a new golf of lockdowns, that no court tegen de omicronvariant, the divorce is now available. Most of the lockdowns, such as those in Shanghai, pas and Maart ten full will be announced in April, the word of the biggest economic impact pas in April.
“Vergeet dat de groeicijfers in het eerste kwartaal wat aantrekken”, according to an analysis of the financial office Bloomberg. “De Cijfers van Maart tonen the real situation: the Chinese economy sold in the worst state are at the beginning of 2020, toen de pandemic de groei voor het first onderuithaalde. En de cijfers van april zullen warschijnlijk nog meer zwakheden blootleggen.”
The Chinese override probeert with steunmaatregelen de economie op te crikken: for taxation for small ondernemer ste verlagen and infrastructuurprojecten te stimulern. The reserve obligations of banks and renters have been transferred to small amounts, from the sea to bring money into the loop. A mortgage has been frozen, om the vastgoedmarkt weer aan te zwengelen. It is also possible to reduce the hindrance of lockdowns for the traffic.
It is because of the analysts’ word that the economic tragedy will be compensated for as long as the large number of people in China are in lockdown. Experts from the Japanse investeringsbank Nomura reported last week that 45 cities in China – goed for 40 percent of the Chinese BNP – because of the circumstances of the actual lockdown. The strict rules of procedure suffer tot hinder in havens in op snelwegen, sputterende factories and verstoringen in de aanvoerketens.
“However, the strength of the economy has been raised, is that the long-term lockdown of Shanghai doors is expected and there are no new lockdowns coming,” said Arjen van Dijkhuizen, economist and China specialist at ABN Amro. The bank does not monitor that China has a yearly total of 5.5 percent, but has a maximum of 5.0 percent, based on the tax regulations. “The Chinese overheating requires a balance between your stability and economic stability. That’s really heavy.”
A large warehouse in China was also followed by the world economy. “As China tolerates, it suffers less in front of China: what was done in Maart al Licht,” says Van Dijkhuizen. “Maar with covid restrictions krijg je ok aanbodproblemen: hindrance for het vrachtvervoer, guards in the haven of Shanghai and all sorts of production contracts can suffer dead blockages in the mondiale aanbodketens. There can be de rest van de wereld followed van gaan voelen.”