China remains behind Russia and blames the United States for the conflict in Ukraine. This was revealed at the press conference of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing on Monday. China’s support for Russia threatens to trigger a geopolitical landslide, pitting two ideological power blocs against each other.
“The friendship between the Chinese and Russian people is rock solid,” said Wang Yi, who refused to call Russia’s actions in Ukraine an “invasion.” ‘There is a good prospect for the collaboration. No matter how uncertain and challenging the international situation may be, China and Russia will (…) steadily advance their strategic partnership for a new era.”
At the same time, in his two-hour press conference – with pre-arranged questions – Wang Yi lashed out at the United States, which “in an effort to maintain its hegemony have resurrected a Cold War mentality.” According to Wang, the US is expanding its rule through “block formation”, against which Russia and China have no choice but to defend themselves. He scolded countries that have security ties with the US, such as Japan and South Korea.
‘Joint Declaration’
The outspoken pro-Russian and anti-American message comes after days of speculation about the scope of China’s support for Russia. Chinese and Russian leaders announced a close partnership in a “Joint Declaration” at the start of the Winter Games, but experts believed Xi may not have supported the invasion or was partially behind it. China came up with ambivalent explanations, which seemed to leave room for adjustment. That space seems to have been an illusion.
“It seems unlikely that Beijing will distance itself from its tacit support for Russia,” said Janka Oertel, Asia specialist at the pan-European think tank European Council on Foreign Relations. “The Joint Declaration is incredibly far-reaching and Xi Jinping personally stands for this close partnership with Russia. It would be very difficult to move away from that.” The big question now is how far Beijing will go and whether it will help Russia evade Western sanctions.
China’s support for Russia could have major consequences for the existing world order. Many countries have already struggled to reconcile economic cooperation and ideological conflict with China. Beijing’s refusal to condemn the Russian invasion — an implied endorsement — makes that that much more difficult. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock warned that a ‘normal relationship’ will become impossible if Beijing looks away.
Cold War
There are fears that the Sino-Russian ‘opportunity axis’ is the prelude to a new Cold War, in which two ideologically hostile power blocs will face each other not only diplomatically, but also economically, technologically and militarily. ‘This is already a sign of a shifting world order’, says Oertel. “A lot will depend on how and when the war in Ukraine ends, but the current development will accelerate the decoupling of the economies.”
Wang Yi himself confirmed that China hopes to usher in a “new era in international relations”, only he presents it as a good thing. According to him, the current US-dominated world order leads to ‘division and confrontation’, while the Sino-Russian alternative benefits the whole world. ‘Our cooperation not only promotes the interests of both peoples, but contributes to peace, stability and development in the world.’
The Chinese reasoning is that respect for Russia’s and China’s “legitimate security demands”—no NATO in Ukraine, no US security alliances in the Indo-Pacific region—could have prevented a conflict like that in Ukraine. In doing so, they are in fact arguing for the return of spheres of influence, in which they, as a regional superpower, will not tolerate any opposition. Several countries in Asia want closer ties with the US because they fear China’s dominance.
Much to lose
Beijing’s position baffles many experts, given that China, as a key player in the global economy, has much more to lose than Russia. In recent years, especially during the covid pandemic, the Chinese government has focused on self-reliance, but China is still very dependent on the West for its technology and exports. Beijing may be betting that the interdependence is so great that decoupling from the West will take time.
In addition, like Putin, Xi leads an increasingly personal regime, surrounded by a small circle of confidants, which increases the risk of miscalculations. “Xi may have made one of the biggest foreign policy blunders of his two terms in office,” said Jude Blanchette, China specialist at the US think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies. “This is a huge impetus for a tougher line against China. If you didn’t think there was a Cold War before, now it’s going to be a lot harder to sustain.’