China is having a resounding success in the Middle East with détente between arch-rivals Riad and Tehran

For China, its mediation between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which culminated on Friday in an agreement on the resumption of diplomatic relations between the two Gulf states, is a big boost. Just as in the past US presidents often allowed themselves to be photographed between rivals who promised to bury the hatchet, now Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stood in Beijing smiling affably hand in hand with the Iranian and Saudi negotiators.

“The Middle East belongs to the people of the Middle East,” said Wang Yi piously. That remark was aimed specifically at Washington. It was a bit of a swallow for the US. Just as they try to curb Chinese expansion worldwide, China is enjoying resounding success in a region where the US has traditionally led the way. The deal proves that they no longer have hegemony in the Middle East.

Analysts point out that the US itself could not have mediated properly because it has very tense relations with Iran and, to a much lesser extent, with the Saudis. Riad broke off relations with Iran after the Saudi embassy in Tehran was stormed in 2016 following the execution of a Shiite cleric in Saudi Arabia. Since then, periodic consultations have taken place between the two countries, but no one had expected such a major breakthrough.

The US was unable to mediate well due to its very strained relations with Iran and, to a much lesser extent, with the Saudis

Iran’s willingness to do so was somewhat to be expected. Partly due to the recent protests in its own country, the regime has ended up in even more international isolation. More importantly, by concluding an agreement with Saudi Arabia, Tehran is loosening the Saudis somewhat from the camp of the US and Israel.

nuclear program

Perhaps more surprising is Riad’s willingness to do so, especially now that concerns about Iran’s nuclear program are growing. According to recent reports, Iran already has uranium that is 83 percent enriched, close to the 90 percent needed for nuclear weapons. Iran, incidentally, denies that ambition. But Israel, the US and Saudi Arabia are nevertheless deeply concerned.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin-Salman, the de facto ruler, apparently speculates that he would rather have Iran as a friend than an enemy. Riad makes no secret of it of no longer relying entirely on Washington’s traditional security umbrella. In Saudi tastes, Washington did not provide enough help after a devastating Iranian attack on Saudi oil facilities in 2019. The US was also hesitant to act when the Yemeni Houthis, who are supported by Iran in their war against Saudi Arabia, launched missiles at Saudi targets started firing.

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Riad has been looking for new allies for some time now, so as not to be solely dependent on the US anymore. China, today the largest buyer of Saudi oil, is the most important of these. To the irritation of the US, Saudi Arabia is also working closely with Russia – despite the war in Ukraine – to keep oil prices high. That collaboration pays off. On Sunday, Saudi state oil company Aramco said it would make a profit of $162 billion in 2022.

Setback for Israel

The agreement is also an unpleasant surprise for Israel, which had just hoped to establish diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia itself, as it had already done with the Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan. But archenemy Iran is now ahead of Israel. Prime Minister Netanyahu blamed the previous government, while the opposition blamed Netanyahu for this fiasco.

According to reports in the American and Israeli media, Saudi Arabia would still be willing to recognize Israel, provided that it is allowed to start its own civilian nuclear program in return – with the support of the US. However, the chance of such an agreement is small.

It is uncertain how significant the significance of the Beijing agreement will be. It mainly depends on whether Iran becomes more reluctant to support militias in Yemen (Houthis), Lebanon (Hezbollah), Iraq and Syria, which are a headache for other countries in the region and the US. But Iran sees it as an essential tool to ensure its influence in the region and for its security. Tehran will not simply stop its nuclear program either.

A version of this article also appeared in the newspaper of March 13, 2023