The ‘offended liverwurst’ is in Kyiv. It could have been a tweet on Thursday from the outspoken Ukrainian ambassador to Berlin, Andriy Melnyk. The man is the scourge of German politics, and of Chancellor Olaf Scholz in particular. Earlier this year, Ukraine refused to receive the German president, an unprecedented diplomatic affront. When Chancellor Olaf Scholz expressed his displeasure about this, Ambassador Melnyk went even further: Scholz acted like an ‘offended liverwurst’†
Meanwhile, the German president has visited Kyiv. Scholz followed on Thursday, along with Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi and French President Emmanuel Macron. Three heads of government from three major European countries coming to show their support, that’s important, said Scholz himself† Moreover, after long hesitation, Germany has finally promised Ukraine heavy weapons in recent weeks: artillery, heavy anti-aircraft guns, and even three advanced missile systems. Until now, the latter only supplied the US and Great Britain.
In Kyiv, Scholz even had another surprise in store: Germany supports Ukraine’s candidate for EU membership, something Scholz previously expressed doubts about. France is now also voting in favour, Italy has been an advocate for some time. The EU commission will issue its opinion on this on Friday, and the member states will decide next week.
But if the pattern of recent months has any predictive value for the future, the German-Ukrainian cold is not over yet. In the run-up to Scholz’s visit, Ambassador Melnyk, an unfiltered channel for sentiment in Kyiv, already tweeted the following Ukrainian complaint. This time he spread an opinion article from the Süddeutsche Zeitungin which the author argued that Germany was doing too little to help Ukraine.
‘Much too little’, says Melnyk. “We urgently need HEAVY weapons. The Ukrainians hope that the Chancellor will not come to Kyiv empty-handed.”
Because damn it takes so long with Germany. That is, roughly translated, the sentiment in Kyiv in recent months. For a long time, the same feeling prevailed outside of Germany, among the US and Germany’s European allies. Berlin hesitated over arms supplies, slammed the brakes on energy sanctions, and warned that a Ukrainian path to EU membership was “not a matter of a few months or years.” ‘There are no shortcuts’, said Scholz during a parliamentary debate in May†
Toss and turn
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the pattern in Germany has been: turn around, hesitate, turn back, and turn around again. In the run-up to the Ukraine war, the German government refused to provide weapons, saying it was historically reluctant to get involved in an active conflict. Berlin did send five thousand combat helmets. Ukraine was furious. Immediately after the Russian invasion, Germany made a historic reversal in its foreign policy, pledged to invest 100 billion euros in its own armed forces, and has since sent thousands of light shoulder-fired anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine.
The weapons helped stop the Russian advance into Kyiv, after which Putin turned his attention to the Donbas. Ukraine demanded heavy weapons to cope with this ground war. Germany hesitated. Ukraine was furious. Scholz took the plunge at the end of April, after a broad appeal from parliament. Germany went on to supply mobile Gepard anti-aircraft systems and heavy armored howitzers. Recently, target-finding radar systems, the advanced IRIS-T anti-aircraft system, and complex missile systems were added. “The return of German leadership,” Ukraine’s presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak exulted on Twitter.
Since then, none of that has arrived. There is hardly any ammunition available for the Gepard systems. The armored howitzer artillery systems required extensive training, but are finally expected soon. The other systems will probably not come until the fall – and who knows if the Ukrainians will hold out that long. Meanwhile, Ukraine has been hammering for months on more far-reaching demands, more and even heavier weapons, which Germany has so far refused to supply: Marder combat vehicles and Leopard I tanks. And then reported Die Welt Am Sonntag also that even the supply of light weapons has largely dried up since the end of March†
The question is therefore whether Scholz’s promises and statements of support can still relent the Ukrainians. The chancellor pledged long-term financial and humanitarian support in Kyiv on Thursday, “and yes, weapons too, for as long as it takes for Ukraine’s independence struggle.” But if his promises don’t become more concrete very soon, there is a good chance that the Ukrainian ambassador in Berlin will soon push the thawing German-Ukrainian relationship back on the shelf via tweet.