The Rossoneri are obliged to win against the Germans who are currently top of the group. But it may not be enough. Here are all the possible combinations for qualification
“The most important match of the season.” At least so far. After the victory against Fiorentina, Stefano Pioli was clear about Milan’s moment. “Now we have to win through suffering, with desire and courage. The group is united, willing and believes in what it does. We need to beat Borussia Dortmund to get through to the Champions League.” The three points against the Germans would be fundamental to continue hoping for qualification to the round of 16, but the Devil might not only need those.
THE RANKING
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Brief recap. At the moment, Milan is third in group F with 5 points, the result of the two draws against Newcastle and Borussia Dortmund and the success against PSG at San Siro (for the Rossoneri 2 goals scored and 4 conceded). At the top of the group are Borussia Dortmund (7 points, 3 goals scored and 2 conceded), in second place is PSG (6 points, 7 goals scored and 6 conceded) and in fourth place is Newcastle (4 points, 4 goals scored) and 4 conceded). A situation that opens up to more than a few scenarios and different calculations, linked to the combinations. Let’s see them.
IF MILAN WINS OVER DORTMUND
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1) If Milan beat Dortmund and PSG lose to Newcastle, at the end of the 5th round there will be this ranking: Milan 8, Newcastle 7, Dortmund 7, Psg 6. To progress, Milan will have to win or draw on the final day with the English. In case of knockout, a draw between Dortmund and PSG will be needed.
2) If Milan beats Dortmund and PSG wins against Newcastle, at the end of the 5th round there will be this ranking: Psg 9, Milan 8, Dortmund 7, Newcastle 4. On the last day, Milan will then have to beat Newcastle. In case of a draw, Dortmund will not have to win against PSG.
3) If Milan beat Borussia Dortmund and Psg-Newcastle ends in a draw, at the end of the 5th round the following ranking will be had: Milan 8, Psg 7, Dortmund 7, Newcastle 5. Milan would then go to the round of 16 by winning or drawing with Newcastle . In the event of a defeat and a draw between Dortmund and PSG, the goal difference will come into play, given that all teams would find themselves on 8 points. However, if Dortmund or PSG were to win, it would be the latter that would progress together with Newcastle (in that case ahead of Milan in the head-to-head matches).
IF MILAN DRAW WITH DORTMUND
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1) If Milan draws against Dortmund and PSG wins against Newcastle, at the end of the 5th round there will be this ranking: Psg 9, Dortmund 8 Milan 6, Newcastle 4. To progress, Milan will have to win with the English in the last round day. At the same time, Dortmund will not have to win against PSG.
2) If Milan draws with Dortmund and Psg-Newcastle ends in a draw, at the end of the 5th round the following ranking will be obtained: Dortmund 8, Psg 7, Milan 6, Newcastle 5. At that point, Milan only advances if they beat Newcastle .
3) If Milan draws against Dortmund and PSG loses against Newcastle, at the end of the 5th round you will have this ranking: Dortmund 8, Newcastle 7, Psg 6, Milan 6. To go to the round of 16, Milan will have to beat Newcastle.
IF MILAN LOSES TO DORTMUND
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1) If Milan loses against Dortmund and PSG wins against Newcastle, at the end of the 5th round there will be this ranking: Dortmund 10, Psg 9, Milan 5, Newcastle 4. Thus, Milan would already be eliminated.
2) If Milan loses to Dortmund and PSG-Newcastle ends in a draw, at the end of the 5th round the following ranking will be obtained: Dortmund 10, PSG 7, Milan 5, Newcastle 5. To go to the round of 16, the Rossoneri would then have to beat Newcastle , while Dortmund should win against PSG.
3) If Milan loses against Dortmund and Newcastle wins against PSG, at the end of the 5th round there will be this ranking: Dortmund 10, Newcastle 7, PSG 6, Milan 5. In this case, Milan would advance by beating Newcastle in final day, but Dortmund must not lose against PSG.
ON EQUAL POINTS
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In case of finishing with equal points, the criteria for passing through are the following, with reference to the 6 matches of the group: points obtained in the matches between the teams; goal difference in matches played between the teams; goals scored in matches between teams; goal difference; goals scored; goals scored away; number of victories; number of away wins; tags; UEFA coefficient.
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