Catalonia lifts restrictions with covid-19 still expanding

Catalonia has already shed a large part of the restrictions drawn up to stop the expansion of the coronavirus responsible for the (still) covid-19 pandemic. Is ‘express de-escalation‘, unlike the gradual lifting of measures in other waves, occurs at a time of particular uncertainty. As recognized by the same resolution of the Generalitat, “the objective of bending the pandemic curve of the sixth and current wave not yet reached”. And the epidemiological data, far from being favourable, only hint at signs of “slowdown” of the virus Y “stabilization” of some indicators. The virus has been expanding for more than a hundred days and, as reflected by the Rt, the rate of infection is slowing down but has not yet stopped.

This same Friday, Catalonia eliminates capacity and meeting limitations, as well as the use of a covid-19 passport in all types of establishments. According to the Official Gazette of the Generalitat (DOGC), the decision is based on a report from the Director of the Public Health Agency of Catalonia, issued on January 26, 2022. The diagnosis draws a balance full of chiaroscuro. On the one hand, it points out that the coronavirus “is in a phase of uncontrolled and sustained community transmission which may exceed the response capacities of the health system”. On the other, it positively values ​​the “reduction” of some care indicators, as well as the stabilization of the numbers of visits for covid-19 in primary care and admissions for this disease With this balance on the table, the Government “considers justified” lift the bulk of the restrictions.

But is this the best time to lift the measures? According to several experts questioned by EL PERIÓDICO, the end of the restrictions comes at a particularly difficult time. “Removing measures right now is rash. The prudent thing would be to gradually de-escalate as the indicators improve, not to lift all the restrictions when we are still on the crest of the wave & rdquor ;, argues the epidemiologist Antoni Trilla, member of the advisory committee on covid-19 of the Generalitat. “The debate on restrictions is a very complex equation. From a scientific and health point of view, it is very clear that right now we are not in a favorable situation and that it would be best to keep them. But it is also true that we must take into account that there are other factors, such as the social and economic impact of these measures& rdquor ;, reflects the doctor.

Trilla, on the other hand, points to one of the main ‘thermometers’ to measure the impact of covid-19: the health system. To illustrate the moment of “tension” Hospitals and primary care centers still live, the specialist asks the following question to measure the magnitude that covid-19 (still) supposes today: “If you needed medical attention, either for covid-19 or for any other disease Can the health system serve you correctly? Right now there are many hospitals that follow descheduling non-essential surgeries, there are a lot of health personnel on sick leave and in primary school they can’t cope with more patients & rdquor ;, says the doctor. “There are no magic wands to fix this, but It is urgent to strengthen the health system. From expanding the capacity of the ICUs to improving contracts and attracting more staff & rdquor ;, he adds.

Rebound effect?

The ‘goodbye to restrictions’ could, on the one hand, slow down the decline of the curve of the sixth wave and, on the other, could generate a “rebound effect”. “The lifting of the measures could generate a false sense of security because, deep down, it conveys the message that the pandemic is over,” he explains. Salvador Macip, also a member of the advisory and scientific committee of the Universitat Oberta de Catalunya. “The problem with creating false expectations is that when they are not met, because the pandemic is very unpredictable, they also generate a lot of frustration. And the more pandemic fatigue increases, the more complicated it will be that if things get complicated again tomorrow, people respect the measures,” says the specialist, also affiliated with the University of Leicester.

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The specialist predicts that, in the short term, we will have to wait at least “a few weeks & rdquor; to see if covid-19 slows its progress. If all goes well, says Macip, looking ahead to spring everything points to we will be in a calmer situation. Especially since among the people who have already had covid-19 and those who have received a booster dose, there will already be a little more ‘collective immunity’ against this virus. Beyond this forecast, the scientist points out that it is not wise to make long-term forecasts. Or talk about when the definitive end of the pandemic will come.“It is not realistic to set deadlines or deadlines to ‘get back to normal’ because, as we have already seen in these two years, the pandemic can change in a matter of weeks. The important thing is to set yourself the goal of reducing the number of cases as much as possible & rdquor ;, he comments. Then we can breathe a little easier.