The future of the car
The car as we know it will disappear, it is often predicted. The combustion engine is replaced by an electric motor, the private car makes way for shared cars, available on demand via an app. The driver becomes redundant due to the self-driving car. Technology gurus envision a future with clean cars that no longer cause accidents. How realistic are their scenarios? Wouldn’t people rather drive themselves, in their own car? An exploration of the future in three parts: the electric car (1)the shared car (2) and the self-driving car (3).
Are you ready?’ asks Carlo van de Weijer, car expert and director of the AI Systems Institute at Eindhoven University of Technology. He presses the power pedal of his electric Porsche Taycan. In 2.5 seconds, a tingling sensation travels from my skull to my toes, as long as it takes the Porsche to speed from 0 to 100 kilometers per hour.
The electric car is no longer a sensible but boring choice for the environment. It’s quiet, fast, smooth and cool. By 2035, the sale of new combustion engine cars in the European Union will be over. With this comes a century and a half of ‘autopie’, the promise of individual freedom through the car with a petrol or diesel engine. The car did indeed bring freedom, but also pollution, global warming, congestion and countless road deaths.
With the end of the combustion engine, a second ‘autopie’ is increasingly being formulated that aims to eliminate the disadvantages of the car without losing individual freedom. The car of the future will be cleaner because it runs on green energy. He will also be safer because he is self-driving and the computer is never dozing behind the wheel. Since it constantly communicates with other cars, traffic will be distributed efficiently over the road network, so that traffic jams never occur again. General Motors’ goal is “a future with zero car accidents, zero emissions and zero congestion,” said CEO Mary Barra.
How credible is this dream for the future? Will the technology get as good as the tech gurus promise? And do people want it? Does he dare to surrender to the self-driving car? Will he forgo the physical pleasure of driving?
In any case, a first step has been taken: the electrification of the car. ‘The car is becoming cleaner, safer and more comfortable. Soon he will also be stuck in a traffic jam himself’, says Carlo van de Weijer. ‘This will only make it more attractive, also in relation to public transport.’
That is exactly the problem, says Hans Jeekel, former professor of Eindhoven University of Technology and now working on it Responsible Mobility Laboratory, in which he develops alternatives for climate policy with regard to mobility with master students and experts. While the climate calls for reducing mobility, the electric car appears as a ‘deus ex machina’, says Jeekel, who promises that we can continue driving as we are used to, as long as we do it electrically.
Electric cars are better for the climate than petrol or diesel models. During their life cycle they emit 50 to 60 percent less CO2 than combustion engine cars. That percentage can rise to 85 percent if they run entirely on green energy, according to the international climate panel IPCC. According to Van de Weijer, they can even emit 100 percent less in the long run, if the production of the cars is also completely sustainable.
But for now they are not yet zero emission, although some manufacturers claim so. In the production of an electric car, especially the batteries, CO . is2 expelled. Moreover, it requires raw materials, including the scarce cobalt. The number of cars will also increase strongly worldwide, according to some estimates from 1.4 billion now to 2.5 billion in 2050.
In addition, significantly more petrol cars are still sold than electric cars. At the beginning of 2022, the market share of cars with an internal combustion engine in Europe was more than 80 percent. ‘Imagine a shoebox that you still fill with fossil fuels day in and day out,’ says Jeekel. By 2050, almost everyone will drive electrically, but if too little happens in the meantime, global warming will be irreversible, he fears.
Unlike Van de Weijer, Jeekel does not believe that innovation is sufficient to combat climate change. According to him, a different lifestyle is necessary: driving fewer kilometers, sharing the car more often, taking the bicycle or public transport. That is also the conclusion of Destination Paris, a report on the implementation of climate policy by a working group led by Laura van Geest, the former director of the Central Planning Bureau: ‘The total amount of kilometers driven must decrease, which requires behavioral change.’ The planet sets limits for us, says Jeekel: ‘Always stimulating all mobility, the earth really cannot handle that, especially if we look globally and allow all emerging economies their mobility.’
While energy and raw materials are scarce, the automotive industry continues the trend to produce bigger, heavier and faster models. Tesla has announced a Roadster with a top speed of 400 kilometers per hour. Even the unwieldy Hummer returns in electric guise, now accelerating from 0 to 100 in 3.5 seconds. A sports car in the body of a truck.
Electrification is one way to maintain a car culture that revolves around status, speed and horsepower, critics say. ‘Cars have indeed gotten bigger, but that’s mainly because people have gotten richer. Unlike Hans Jeekel, unfortunately, I don’t believe in a significant effect from reducing consumption’, says Van de Weijer. ‘I fear that humanity will let itself go extinct before it takes a structural and significant step back in comfort.’
That’s why the electric car is a huge improvement anyway, he says. ‘The electric car offers the possibility to drive completely sustainably in the long run, in contrast to the fossil-powered car. Innovation is the only serious option for the escape from the dystopia.’
Next week part 2: the shared car.