Can Ukraine push back the Russians with a counteroffensive?

It has been talked about for weeks, but now the long-awaited Ukrainian offensive towards the southern city of Kherson seems to have really started.

A spokesman for the Ukrainian army on Monday reported an advance in “several directions in the south, including the Kherson region”. Local media reported, citing anonymous sources, that Ukrainian troops had forced a breakthrough. As a result, Russian units would have been put to flight. A widely shared video allegedly made by a fighter of the pro-Russian People’s Republic of Donetsk shows a soldier flat on his stomach, with mud on his helmet and blood on his face. Explosions and gunfire can be heard in the background. “The ‘Oekropy’ fuck us with everything they have,” says the unknown soldier: “They broke through the first line of defense.”

It was difficult to determine Monday evening how real the video is and what progress the Ukrainians are making on the battlefield, but it is certain that the Ukrainians have been busy for weeks creating the conditions for the recapture of Kherson – and that the Russian troops are are in an extremely vulnerable position.

Kherson, located on the north bank of the Dnieper, was the first major city that Russian troops managed to capture. The Russian attack plan envisaged a rapid advance along the Black Sea coast towards Mykolaiv and Odessa, but those plans failed. As Russian forces retreated north of Kiev, soldiers north of Kherson dug trenches in the black fertile earth.

Western weapons supply has highlighted strategic vulnerability of Russian forces

And though Russia then threw its full weight into the Donbas, the fragility of the southern front could hardly be disguised: a bridgehead north of the Dnieper, barely fifty kilometers deep, in a vast steppe where the only cover is formed by the trees along the way. Russian soldiers looked anxiously over their shoulder: the wide Dnieper cut them off from Crimea and the Russian hinterland.

Strategic Vulnerability

The supply of Western weapons has underlined the strategic vulnerability of the Russian forces. The Ukrainians have not only successfully deployed US HIMARS missiles (range: 80 kilometers) against Russian behind-the-line ammunition depots, they have also attacked connections across the Dnieper. The Antonivsky Bridge towards Kherson is no longer usable. On Monday, there were also reports of attacks on the bridge at Nova Kachovka, further east. For several weeks now, the Russians have been trying to maintain connections across the Dnieper via makeshift pontoon bridges and ships. Meanwhile, ammunition depots were blown up far behind the lines and Russian air bases in Crimea became the scene of massive explosions.

The question now is whether Ukraine has the military clout to indeed move forward and chase the Russians off the north bank of the Dnieper. An unconfirmed Russian report on Telegram spoke of 16 Ukrainian tanks advancing from Mykolaiv towards Kherson. Other Russian sources spoke of the capture of a hamlet further east south of Kryvyh Rih, ten kilometers behind the front line.

In recent weeks, it was rumored that the military staff of the Russian army in the south had left Kherson. This gives the impression that Russia is not prepared to defend the city without logistical lines to the hinterland. Militarily, there would be much to be said for Russia’s withdrawal behind the Dnieper, which is well-defensible. But politics is different.

Big shock

The recapture of Kherson will be felt as a great shock in Russia. Military bloggers such as former FSB officer Igor Girkin (against whom the Dutch Public Prosecution Service demanded life in prison for shooting down flight MH17) have been arguing for months against Putin’s ‘special military operation’ that provides for the deployment of purely volunteer professional soldiers, supplemented by men who are recruited. in the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. According to Kiev, 47,000 of these have now been killed. Girkin and other ‘hawks’ have long been demanding that Russia mobilize and show its demographic dominance.

The Ukrainian government was mainly busy on Monday to temper overwrought expectations

So far, Putin seems unwilling to do so. And the Russian beachhead at Kherson seems indefensible. The Antonivsky Bridge is closed to car traffic. The bridge at Nova Kachovka was attacked again Monday evening – probably with US HIMARS missiles.

On Monday, the Ukrainian government was mainly busy tempering overwhelmed expectations. “I understand our wishes and dreams,” said Mikhailo Podoljak, adviser to Ukrainian President Volydymyr Zelensky. “Still, I don’t want to say too much about our military operations.”

“I understand that many have been waiting for good news,” said Natalya Humenyuk, spokesman for the Ukrainian armed forces. “Still, I would like to ask everyone not to exaggerate these events too much.”