Aston Villa’s game discipline can be expected to improve rapidly under Unai Emery.
Unai Emery arrived at Aston Villa to replace Steven Gerrard. PDO
The most interesting game of the day
At the beginning of November, Aston Villa, who played erratically and defended poorly at the beginning of the season, appointed the man who led Arsenal in 78 matches in 2018-2019 as their new manager. Unai Emery’s. Emery’s previous spell at Villarreal lasted 130 matches and was successful, including even winning the Europa League in 2021. Emery has become known for his strict game discipline and highly structured way of playing. Resignation from the last coach of Villa Steven Gerrard’s compared to the “unusual” way of playing is therefore large.
Villa have now played two games under Emery – both against Manchester United. There was a 3–1 win at home in the Premier League, and on Thursday we lost 2–4 away in the Liigacup. In terms of the number of goals, the results do not give a true picture of the matches at all – or what kind of game Emery would like Villa to play. In the four-goal home match, the expected goal was only created by a fair amount of goals (0.7–0.5) and even in Thursday’s goal celebration, the expected goal was around 2.5 goals (2.0–0.6).
Especially when his own team is in the lead, Emery tends to play very cautiously, maintaining the lead without seeking additional goals. Often, Emery’s teams tend to become too passive in the lead. The most important idea about Emery’s Villa is that the team’s playing will become much more disciplined than seen and at the same time probably less goals. How much time the change will take is its own question. I personally believe in relatively quick discipline.
On Sunday, Aston Villa will face Brighton away. Brighton is going in a completely different direction than Aston Villa due to the influence of their own coach change. Brighton, which used to be really goal-shy, has come into its own after mid-September Roberto De Zerbin played matches with a lot of goals in the lead – and not only in terms of scored goals, but also in terms of expected goals. Against Villa, it will be interesting to see which coach’s game philosophy the match turns out to be. As for the formations, both Brighton and Aston Villa enter the match from almost ideal starting points. The home team is practically missing no one, and Villa also only lacks a defender who missed almost the entire season Diego Carlos and midfield Philippe Coutinho. You can make a minimal reduction in Coutinho’s playing power.
In terms of power relations, the betting market clearly has Brighton on top as a 50% winner. I myself am much more in favor of Villa. In terms of betting, there are two tasty searches available for the Brighton–Aston Villa match. With the concentration mentality of Aston Villa’s game, both its equalizing success and the lack of goals in the entire match fit under the same idea. The multipliers are given a nice boost by the recent results of both Brighton and Aston Villa, who have too many goals for their style of play. I consider both the 1.99 odds of Aston Villa +0.5 and the 1.83 odds of under 2.5 goals to be borderline cases. Brighton–Aston Villa kicks off at 4:00 p.m.
The best betting tip of the day
Sunday’s third possible search is the goal-scoring match between Fulham and Manchester United in the Premier League. Veikkaus offers (at least at the time of writing the tip) the market’s highest odds of 1.72 for a match with more than 2.5 goals. Despite their 0-0 home draw against Everton last time, Fulham continues as the team with the most goals in the Premier League, if it is measured by the 2.5 goals per match line. As many as 12 of Fulham’s 14 matches (86%!) have ended with more than 2.5 goals.
When Manchester United is also an “over team” with 54 percent, it is difficult to see this match between them as very low-scoring despite a few absences. My estimate for over 2.5 goals is 58 percent, so we’re moving very close to playable with an over here. Fulham–Manchester United starts at 18:30.
Games of the day:-
Total balance of the day’s games for the year: 64/106/109%
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