The far right Geert Wilders intends to take his Freedom Party (PVV) to the leadership of the Dutch Government from the position of first force achieved in Wednesday’s parliamentary elections. He will have just 35 seats in the 150-seat parliament in The Hague, but he will struggle to find the allies he needs to secure a parliamentary majority. He was a triumph against the oddssince the polls pointed to a tight tie for first place among the liberals of the outgoing prime minister Mark Ruttethe social democratic-green bloc of Frans Timmermanns or the new center Pieter Omtzigt. His main challenge now is to turn around the situation with which he achieved this victory: the center-right parties were willing to accept him as a partner, but they ruled him out as head of the next government.
How to become prime minister with less than 25% of the vote
Wilders seemed the first to be surprised by that first place and its 35 seats, which translated into percentage means 23.4% of the votes. He is a considerable distance from second place, which corresponds to former vice president of the European Commission Timmermans, with 25 seats – or 15.6% -. Rutte’s liberals, now led by the justice minister Dilan Yesilgöz, They suffered a strong setback and came third, with 24 seats, followed by the center of Omtzigt, with 20. The fragmented Dutch parliament has another dozen parties among which Wilders can maneuver in search of allies. Only two others, the so-called farmers’ party, BBBand the left-liberal D66 -partner of the outgoing Rutte- have a more or less respectable number of seats -7 and 10, respectively-.
The lock on migration as a common denominator
Wilders has in his favor that his main flag, the curb on what he calls “migratory tsunami”, is largely shared by the main forces of the center and the right. Dilan Yesilgöz, the liberal candidate who aspired to take over from Rutte, was apparently not convincing enough for that electoral spectrum despite the fact that she also defended the hard line on immigration policy, from her status as a woman born in Ankara and arriving in the country as a child, along with her parents, two refugees. After more than twenty years on the Dutch political scene, Wilders had in her favor the visibility adopted by her party, one of the most consolidated among the European radical family, and also the fact that he has somewhat moderated his furious anti-Islam speech.
Timmermans as an alternative
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If Wilders does not get the support he seeks, the second option would theoretically correspond to Timmermans’ social democratic-green bloc, in that case with the support of three other centrist formations or even one more. He would have to wait his turn, that is, the failure of the thriving Wilders, and would face a predictably arduous negotiation. But in the Dutch scene this is not exactly new either. Liberal Mark Rutte needed 271 days to form his last coalition – with four parties. The result was a fragile constellation, which ended prematurely dissolved, precipitated the calling of early elections and Rutte’s announced farewell to office. It remains to be seen when his withdrawal will be consummated.
The improbable “Nexit”
Wilders’ ideology not only aims to close mosques and other forms of restraint on the Muslim community, in addition to restricting asylum. It is also deeply eurosceptic and among its identity signs is the departure of the Netherlands from the European Union (EU) or “Nexit” -or Dutch exit from the block-. This is more than unlikely to happen, even if he leads the next government. The rest of the center or right-wing formations that could become their allies reject that option. In his 13 years in power, Mark Rutte has been a headache for many of his associates, especially those in the south. He has unscrupulously practiced so-called fiscal frugality or extreme austerity. But the perception dominates among the Dutch political class that the country and its 17 million citizens are among the EU’s pampered partners.