By suspending the START treaty, Putin is increasing the nuclear threat

With the announcement that Russia is suspending its participation in the START nuclear weapons treaty, President Putin has again increased the nuclear threat in the world on Tuesday. With that, NATO Secretary Stoltenberg immediately responded, “the entire architecture of arms control has been demolished”. US Secretary of State Blinken called the move “very unfortunate and very irresponsible”.

A year after the start of the invasion of Ukraine, the conflict has radiated far beyond the battlefield. Not only is the use of tactical nuclear weapons being seriously discussed for the first time since the 1980s, the contours of the two power blocs from the Cold War are also becoming visible again. Tensions between China and the US have not run as high since the open door policy of the 1970s as they have in recent weeks.

And that at a time when incidents are putting pressure on relations between China and the US. Beijing in a high tone (“stop spreading false news”) contradicted Minister Blinken’s announcement this weekend that China is seriously considering supplying arms to Russia. But the government spokesman also said, apparently in response to the US warning that Chinese arms deliveries are “unacceptable” and “a red line”, that it is not for the US arms wholesaler to tell China how to behave.

After a year of hesitation, the Chinese increasingly seem to be taking sides. Tuesday reported the Wall Street Journal that Chinese President Xi is preparing a visit to Putin and that his country wants to “play a more active role in ending the conflict”. Xi would like to underline that nuclear weapons should not be used in war.

Extend treaties

The essence of the START talks, which began in the 1970s and has since resulted in new treaties, is that Russia (then: the Soviet Union) and the US limit the number of long-range nuclear missiles and that both countries are allowed to carry out inspections on each other’s territory to see if they keep to the agreements. The Biden administration extended that treaty, signed in 2010 by then-President Obama and his then-Russian counterpart Medvedev, in 2021 to 2026. The Trump administration did not want to extend the agreements because the Chinese nuclear arsenal remains outside the treaty and American arms reduction in the face of a uncontrolled China seemed hopeless. China has consistently stated that it does not see any agreement on its nuclear weapons.

The situation with Russia is different insofar as Putin has kept alive the threat of the use of tactical nuclear weapons – which are not covered by START – since the beginning of the war. Earlier remarks about the readiness of that part of the Russian army, about defending his country “by all means” and the warning in his speech on Tuesday that he does not consider the resumption of nuclear tests impossible, only put more tension on the situation.

Putin said in his speech that it would be “absurd” to give the Americans access to Russian nuclear facilities, after which the US would pass that information on to the Ukrainians for further attacks. President Biden’s lightning visit to Kiev on Monday and his reiterated assurance in Warsaw on Tuesday that US support for Ukraine is “unwavering” is an ever-fresh incentive for Putin to portray the war in Ukraine as a defense against Western aggression against Russia . He said the US is aiming for a “strategic defeat” of Russia.

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The suspension of the START agreements does little to change the current situation. During the corona pandemic, inspections were halted in 2020 and after restrictions on international traffic were largely lifted, Russia kept coming up with new excuses to postpone inspections. Last month reported the US State Department that Russia is not fulfilling its inspection obligations.

With START, the last of the nuclear arms treaties that both nuclear superpowers still maintained is about to collapse. In 2019, the Trump administration canceled the INF treaty for intermediate-range missiles, also because Russia did not comply and China remained outside the agreement.