Bundesliga: Mainz, Cologne, Darmstadt – statistics that smell of relegation

In the Bundesliga, 1. FSV Mainz 05 and 1. FC Köln have eleven points after 17 games, SV Darmstadt 98 have ten – that’s how you get relegated, the statistics say. But there is hope, there actually is.

Timo Schultz was wearing a tracksuit, which is something like winter clothing for a trainer in Cologne. When FC had impressed for half of the home game against Heidenheim and ended up drawing a draw, Schultz tugged at his training jacket once and then went into analysis. They now have one point more than before the game, he said in an interview with ARD radio. “That’s a fact.”

A lot has changed in Cologne recently. The coach is no longer called Steffen Baumgart, his name is Timo Schultz. Baumgart also wore a T-shirt with jeans and a flat cap in the winter, while Schultz wore a training jacket on his debut. Baumgart never actually sat still in the dugout; he gestured, swore and jumped. Schultz rarely jumps, and when he swears, he does so more quietly. You haven’t heard him swear on TV yet.

The footballing approach has also changed, at least a little. Baumgart liked it with a lot of speed and over the wings, Schultz likes it more wait and see. With him, not every attack ends with a cross. But some things have remained the same: FC is having some difficulties winning this season. And they preferred to look at the table in Cologne.

Eleven points after 17 games – that often ended in relegation

After the end of the first half of the season, 1. FC Köln is second to last in the table with eleven points, while 1. FSV Mainz 05 is a few goals better and is therefore in 16th place (eleven points). Last is SV Darmstadt 98 (ten points). This is not good news, not for Cologne and Mainz, and especially not for Darmstadt. It’s actually pretty bad news, statistics say.

The thing is: Since the three-point rule was introduced in the 1995/96 season, there have been 24 times that a team had eleven points or less after matchday 17. This usually ended in relegation, the rate is 75 percent. There are statistics that smell of relegation. They know this in Mainz, Cologne and Darmstadt.

In the 2006/07 season under coach Jürgen Klopp, Mainz only got eleven points from the first 17 league games. Things went better in the second half of the season, but not good enough. Mainz was relegated. It was similar in Darmstadt in the 2016/17 season (nine points after the first half of the season) and a year later in Cologne (six points), and they also failed to stay in the league.

Memories of 2011 when Favre saved Gladbach

And yet all three clubs can hope. Because the gap to 1. FC Union Berlin in 15th place is only three or four points – although the Berliners have played one game less. And because in the past there have sometimes been stories of teams that had as few points at this point in the season as Mainz, Cologne or Darmstadt today, but who still celebrated in the end.

Unforgettable how Lucie Favre took over Borussia Mönchengladbach in 18th place on one day in February 2011, how he stabilized the team around the technicians Marco Reus and Juan Arango, how they won three of the last four games of the season together and saved themselves from relegation. How Igor de Camargo scored a goal in the relegation game against Bochum that Gladbach fans have not forgotten. And how Gladbach remained a first division team.

It was similarly dramatic in the 1999/2000 season, when Eintracht Frankfurt saved themselves with just eleven points after the first half of the season. In Frankfurt the protagonists were Felix Magath and Horst Heldt. And then there is another story from the 2020/21 season that Mainz residents remember fondly.

Heidel, Schmidt, Svensson – and a Mainz fairy tale

After 17 match days, 1. FSV Mainz 05 only had seven points, then Christian Heidel and Martin Schmidt took over sporting responsibility and presented Bo Svensson as coach. And it worked: Mainz scored 32 points in the second half of the season and managed to stay in the league.

Today the coach is no longer called Svensson, Mainz also changed coaches this season. This is Jan Siewert. When he took over as interim coach at the beginning of November, Mainz immediately won against Leipzig. It was the first win of the season in the Bundesliga – but no one has achieved it yet. Siewert stabilized the defense in Mainz and never conceded more than one goal in any game. It’s just not going well at the front: five goals in eight Siewert games.

Siewert would certainly be happy about an attacker who scores goals. It could be that those responsible, Heidel and Schmidt, will fulfill his wish in January. Schmidt said after the draw against Wolfsburg: “We’re watching the market.”

Everyone is looking for a goalscorer – in Cologne they have to be particularly creative

In Cologne they have similar problems with scoring goals; the statistics only show eleven FC goals – no team in the Bundesliga is more dangerous. But coach Schultz can’t hope for a new goalscorer, the transfer ban against the club has just been imposed. And now not only Luca Waldschmidt has been injured, Davie Selke (five goals) is also out for the time being.

Darmstadt, bottom of the table, scored 20 goals but also conceded 44 goals, fifteen more than the competition from Cologne and Mainz. There is a lack of class in defense, but also up front. They are looking for a powerful attacker in Darmstadt, a Sandro Wagner type. One who guarantees goals. But who isn’t looking for that?

And yet in Darmstadt they are taking a different path than the competition. The coach’s name is still Torsten Lieberknecht, his job is not in danger. On the contrary: Since sporting director Carsten Wehlmann unexpectedly left the “Lilien”, Lieberknecht has been part of a group that decides on transfers until a successor is hired. And in his new role, Lieberknecht just told “Hessischer Rundfunk”: “We will definitely do something more.”