The Legislative election From the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires of this 2025 it arrives with a fragmented legislature and a dispersed electoral offer, product of the implosion of together for change, the advance of mileism, the turn of Peronism, and the appearance of new minor formations that seek to position themselves.
But behind the names in competition, there is a structural fact that defines the tone of this choice: of the 30 banks in dispute, Some forces put more at stake than otherswhich can mean both consolidations and setbacks in the correlation of forces that will define the next Buenos Aires governance.
The 2021 cast as a starting point
In the elections four years ago, when there was still a cohesive version of together for the change, that coalition obtained 15 of the 30 benches. Of that total, The pro stayed with 6, The UCR with 3, The civic coalition with 2 and another 4 were distributed among minor assemblies. Today, with the consumed fracture, these benches are distributed between stamps that will compete separately or even faced, which puts a good part of the legislative capital accumulated in that turn at stake.
In parallel, Union for the Homeland “Then everyone’s had achieved 8 bencheswhich positions it as the block that most risks this year. Leandro Santorocurrent referent of space in the city, faces a complex challenge: maintain or overcome, in a scenario where Kirchnerism no longer tracrates as in previous cycles, and with a traditionally adverse porteño electorate to Peronism.
Freedom advances: the space that can grow
In 2021, La Libertad Avanza obtained 6 benchesbut two of them today respond to the former block leader Ramiro Marrawho was deposed by Karina Mileiand formed a subblock of his own. For libertarians who respond directly to driving Pilar Ramírezovercoming that brand will have a double value: they will not only grow in number, but will consolidate the internal purge of the space. Everything indicates that this objective is within reach: the surveys anticipate a significant improvement for mileism in the city, which predicts a general shift of the legislative board to the right.
The rest of the map consists of minorities at risk and alliances under construction in addition to the main blocks, there are other forces that put the key institutional presence at play: Public trust (the space founded by Graciela Ocaña) renews 1 bench; he Left Front risk 2 places; he Socialist party puts 1 bank at stake; and United Republicans (Referenced in Yamil Santoro) also risk 1 seat.
With a fragmented offer and a polarized scenario, these forces are at risk of being out of the next legislature, especially the leftwhich according to the most recent polls would suffer an important setback, even reducing its representation to its minimum historical expression in CABA.
The PRO and the reconstruction game
Although Mauricio Macri It is still a visible actor, the PRO crosses a moment of structural withdrawal. It renews 6 benches, but faces the risk of a decrease in its flow of votes in front of a center -right electorate who today migrates to freedom advances.
Anyway, If you manage to maintain your electoral base or add any more legislatorJorge Macri, head of Buenos Aires government, could expand his margin of parliamentary negotiation and rebuild some centrality within a more atomized board.
In this context, The role of loose allies (such as MID, United Republicans or part of residual larretism) will be key. And the PRO could try to articulate short -term majorities with these minor blocks, especially if the UCR and the civic coalition (which today renew 3 and 2 benches, respectively) suffer a setback as several surveys suggest.
The Santoro challenge: grow to condition
For union for the homeland, everything is put to overcome the floor of 8 benches of 2021. If Leandro Santoro – referring to the “Kirchnerist Radical” wing – achieves that goal, will consolidate its role as the main institutional opponent in the city and will increase its capacity to influence both the legislature and in the assembly for 2027.
Moreover, if the satellite lists of minor spaces do not exceed the electoral threshold, the votes could end up swelling the list headed by Santoro himself, which would further enhance their performance. In that sense, the fragmentation of the center and the right can also play in favor of Peronism, if it manages to loyalty a solid base and capture part of the orphan progressive vote.
CONCLUSION: Fragmentation, opportunities and realignments
The legislative elections of this 2025 in the city will not only reconfigure the composition of the Buenos Aires Legislature. They will also leave evidence What political projects have the capacity to sustain themselves, which ones can grow and what leadership are called to retire.
With the PRO in defensive phase, radicalism without clear expansion, the left in recoil and Peronism seeking to affirm, The great projected winner could be mileismwhich can not only increase benches, but symbolically capture the role of the main actor of the new Buenos Aires political order.
But the future of the legislature will depend not only on the votes, but also on the ability of each space to build lasting alliances. The dispute for the 30 benches at stake is just the beginning of a major process: the redefinition of power in the city of Buenos Aires.
You may also interest you
By rn
Image gallery
