The European Union must negotiate accession with Ukraine, Moldova and Bosnia and Herzegovina. With this advice, the European Commission is opening the door to EU enlargement a little further this Wednesday. The advice is an important boost, especially for Ukraine, which is caught in an ongoing war, although the accession talks are expected to take years.
“This is a historic day,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said during a press conference on Wednesday. She called EU enlargement “essential” because of geopolitical realities and an “investment in our security.” It illustrates how much the Russian invasion has given a stir to the discussion about further expansion of the European Union, something for which there was little enthusiasm within the EU before February last year.
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A decision on the start of the talks must now first be confirmed by European government leaders during a meeting in mid-December. The Commission’s advice is expected to receive broad support. At the same time, there is uncertainty about the attitude of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who is increasingly openly aligned with Russia. There is also the fear that Hungary will make approval dependent on the Brussels disbursement of EU funds that were frozen last year due to concerns about the Hungarian rule of law.
Acceleration
Ukraine’s possible EU accession has gained momentum since the Russian invasion last year. Last summer, the EU decided to make the country a ‘candidate member’ at an accelerated pace. At the time, Brussels also specified various conditions that Ukraine had to meet in order to actually start negotiations.
Of those seven conditions, the Commission wrote on Wednesday, Kyiv now meets four. According to Brussels, sufficient steps have been taken to ensure the independent selection of judges for the Constitutional Court and the Supreme Judicial Council, improved money laundering legislation and an amended media law. At the same time, Ukraine still needs to do more to combat corruption, reduce the influence of oligarchs and protect minorities.
However, the advice is now positive, because according to the Commission the final steps are within reach. The importance of the political signal to Kyiv that the country is making good progress and is supported by the EU is underlined in both Brussels and most EU countries. If EU countries give the green light in December, Ukraine can introduce the final laws in the following months, after which the first talks can start next year.
“You have made great progress, much greater than anyone expected from a country at war,” Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasized on Saturday during a visit to the Ukrainian parliament in Kyiv. “You can make it. And fast too. You have already completed more than 90 percent.”
Brussels had good news not only for Ukraine on Wednesday: the EU should also soon start negotiations with Moldova and Bosnia, if it is up to the Commission. According to the Commission, Moldova is also almost there and still needs to introduce a few additional laws before talks can start next year. A positive decision by EU countries is also seen as not very controversial here.
Political signal
This is different for Bosnia and Herzegovina, with which, if Brussels has its way, discussions must also start in the long term. While, according to analysts, Ukraine and Moldova made great progress in strengthening the rule of law last year, the situation in the small Balkan country deteriorated at the same time.
Nevertheless, the Commission recommends negotiating with Bosnia, provided that country still takes crucial steps. It is a clear political signal from Brussels, in the hope of preventing the country from further decline. “We are opening the door, but to go through it, Bosnia and Herzegovina still has to do something,” said Von der Leyen. At the same time, it is unclear whether Bosnia will be able to meet the conditions in the foreseeable future.
Finally, the European Commission also wants to bring Georgia closer. While the country was already given the prospect of an accession process last year, Brussels is now advising Georgia to actually make it a candidate member.