This is apparent from the figures from the NVM estate agency for the first three months of 2022. These are based on the sale of ‘only’ 29 thousand homes. That is the lowest number in eight years and almost a fifth less than in the last quarter of last year. The fewer sales, the greater the chance of outliers in the price.
The price development in the first quarter of this year is also traditionally often lower than in the rest of the year. Nevertheless, the NVM speaks of ‘a light breeze’ that could cool the overheated housing market slightly.
Of all homes sold, 79 percent were sold above the asking price. A year ago this was still 65 percent. However, for the first time in three years, the average difference between asking and selling prices has decreased slightly.
Dent in disposable income
Since the turn of the year, the situation for prospective home buyers has not improved significantly. The average mortgage interest rate rose by a full percentage point, towards 2.5 percent. This results in significantly higher monthly payments. The price increases of energy and other products also have a dent in disposable income and therefore in the maximum mortgage amount. In addition, the Russian invasion of Ukraine creates additional economic uncertainty.
It is still too early to draw conclusions about the influence of these circumstances on the housing market, NVM chairman Onno Hoes said in a press release. ABN Amro bank dared it this week. House prices will rise by 12.5 percent this year, the bank expects. Three weeks ago, both Rabobank and ING Bank expressed similar expectations.
There are still many factors that drive house prices forward, says real estate agent Lana Gerssen, chair of the Housing department of the NVM. According to her, the balance between demand for housing and supply is still ‘completely off’. Mortgage interest rates are also still low, despite the recent increase. In addition, many homeowners have a significant equity value on their home and a savings balance. According to Gerssen, they use that capital during the search for a replacement home.
Anxious
That quest is very difficult. In the past twelve months, 141 thousand homes came on the market. In previous years, that number was around 170 thousand homes. Compared to a year ago, the number of homes for sale is more than 4 percent lower, but 10 percent higher than at the end of last year. Against the countless home seekers are many homeowners who would like to move, but do not dare to put their house up for sale. They are afraid to fish behind the net themselves.
This reluctance creates even more scarcity, which pushes up prices even more. In the first quarter of this year, NVM estate agents sold approximately 29 thousand homes. That is almost 20 percent less than in the same period last year, when supply was also considered extremely tight. If a house came up for sale in the first three months of this year, it was sold in 24 days on average.
The decline in the number of homes sold is greatest in the Greater Amsterdam region, at 30 percent on an annual basis. In parts of North Brabant, the decline was also great, at more than 24 percent.
The brokers are urging the acceleration of all new construction projects, in particular homes that are popular with seniors, for example. If they want to move, this leads to the sale of their (often larger) single-family homes.
However, the NVM concludes that things do not go smoothly with the new building. In the first quarter of this year, 7,200 new-build homes were sold. That is almost 30 percent less than in the same period last year. In the last quarter of last year, only 6,500 new-build homes and building plots came onto the market.